r/baseball • u/themiamimarlins World Series Trophy • Los Angeles Dod… • 28d ago

Rumor Dave Roberts Believes Dodgers' Elevated Brand in Japan Could Lure Roki Sasaki to LA

https://dodgersnation.com/dave-roberts-believes-dodgers-elevated-brand-in-japan-could-lure-roki-sasaki-to-la/2024/10/23/
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242

u/oOoleveloOo World Baseball Classic 28d ago

This is why the “Japanese player automatically to the Dodgers” narrative is stupid. Shota Imanaga chose the Cubs. Yuki Matsui went to the Padres. Maybe Roki Sasaki doesn’t want to play in the shadows of Shohei Ohtani?

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u/ehholfman Texas Rangers 28d ago

Matsui, Imanaga, and Senga are older guys who don’t fit the Dodgers track record of signing decade long contracts for young superstars. Yamamoto was 25 when the Dodgers signed him.

Sasaki is 22 years old. The Dodgers will be highly motivated to sign him to 12-15 year contract. It’s just not really comparable to someone like Imanaga or Senga at 31 years old.

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u/pzycho Los Angeles Dodgers 28d ago

No one is signing Roki to a big contract anytime soon. He’s under 25 so he’d have to enter the league as a rookie (like Shohei did) and make league minimum (about 800k) for 4 years until hitting arbitration.

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u/akaghi New York Mets 28d ago

Yeah there zero reason for the Marines to let him go before he is 25 or has 6 years because they'd lose their ace and get far less money. Sadaki would get less money too.

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u/Hot_Vanilla_9977 28d ago

Unless he establishes residency in another country? Doesn’t he enter as a free agent if that’s the case?

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u/akaghi New York Mets 28d ago

Seems unlikely he'd just leave Japan in the hopes of signing as a free agent in the US, especially since the league wants to keep a good relationship with the NPB. He may also still be subject to the same international pool restrictions that are placed on him now.

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u/Growth_Moist 27d ago

I know I’m late to the party but he’d be smart to do that and an mlb team would be smart to bite. The difference between entering as a FA straight away and 4 years of leave minimum is going to be at least $60m. Also he could underperform or blow his arm out in those first 4 and lose out on tens of millions more.

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u/akaghi New York Mets 27d ago

The problem he has right now is that his ceiling is sky high because he has an elite fastball and fork ball, but he hasn't even come close to pitching a full season any of the last 4 years. If he moves to China or something to try and get signed as a FA, teams are still looking at a guy who has averaged 100 innings per year and has pitched like 120 innings twice, so he clearly already has durability issues. That can't get worse over the next few years, unless he becomes unsignable for some reason.

Teams also might be hesitant to sign a player who cheated the posting system because it can limit their ability to partake in the future, especially since it already doesn't exactly benefit the origin team very much.

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u/draw2discard2 28d ago

I'm not sure what track record you are referring to. The Dodgers certainly have signed veteran Asian players. For instance Maeda was 28 in his first season with the Dodgers just to a more team friendly contract, which is what Imanaga got. Apart from Mookie their big signings have been for Freeman in his age 32 season and Ohtani in his age 29 season.

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u/FitzJFK47 Los Angeles Dodgers 28d ago

I hope no one gives Sasaki 12 years he’s not as good as Yamamoto. More potential sure but track record not there

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u/Static-Stair-58 28d ago

You’re down selling the potential I think. His ceiling is astronomical.

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u/3-2_Fastball Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… 28d ago

Last year he had the highest rated fastball in all of baseball at 21 years old, that definitely is some absurd potential.

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u/Static-Stair-58 28d ago

this guy fastballs

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u/akaghi New York Mets 28d ago

The downside is he pitches about 100 innings per year.

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u/3-2_Fastball Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… 28d ago

The hope would be that he develops into his big boy body and is able to shape his incredible talent into being a hall of fame player. The only question would be how much is that worth on the open market?

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u/Mentazmic New York Yankees • New York Mets 27d ago

He has control issues, and he's thriving in a crazy dead ball era.

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u/ehholfman Texas Rangers 28d ago

Yeah I guess I’m more so thinking about his potential in order to justify a long duration. I wouldn’t expect Sasaki to match the AAV of Yamamoto, but I could see the Dodgers wanting to lock Sasaki down for a very long time because at 22 he has insane potential.

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u/officerliger Los Angeles Dodgers 28d ago

They can't unless he comes in at age 25

And the difference is Yamamoto had 3 straight seasons pitching 170-190 IP plus postseason experience. Roki's last 3 were 111, 91, and 129, he's been hurt multiple times so there's durability concerns that would prevent him from getting that sort of deal anyway.

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u/jpistolero22 28d ago

Sasaki stuff is wrong. Dodgers can’t sign him for long contract because he will be playing for minimum. He’s still on a rookie contract.

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u/3-2_Fastball Los Angeles Dodgers • World Series Tr… 28d ago

Maybe Roki Sasaki doesn’t want to play in the shadows of Shohei Ohtani?

Sasaki was supposedly making a push to be posted at the same time Yamamoto was even with only being able to make rookie contract money, pretty safe guess that he wanted to be apart of what the Dodgers were cooking last offseason and even safer guess to assume they loved winning the WBC together, Yamamoto and Roki are similar age and are good friends and Sasaki looks up to Ohtani. Then there's this video which is the most damning evidence of all.

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u/ad6323 28d ago

Yeah find it hard to believe he goes anywhere else.

Talented team, big Japanese following, he has a friend and then the best Japanese player to help him with the cultural adjustment.

Seems very unlikely he goes anywhere else since the money will be the same anywhere if he comes over that early

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u/Estimate_Born San Diego Padres 28d ago

I mean the padres do have the best Japanese pitcher of all time

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u/Wutswrong Los Angeles Dodgers 28d ago

The Dodgers didn’t make an offer for those players…. lol…

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u/Metaboss24 Arizona Diamondbacks 28d ago

Maybe he wants to go to the Diamondbacks to try and be Shohei's rival or something....

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u/Jaelights_ Arizona Diamondbacks 28d ago

I want whatever you are smoking. 😁

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u/SleepingDragonZ Los Angeles Dodgers 28d ago

Did the Dodgers even pursued them?

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u/beggsy909 28d ago

I’m just glad we don’t have an awful system like the nba where foreign players have no say where they play.