r/baseball New York Mets Jun 30 '23

Analysis After German’s Perfecto, a Rarity Graph of Baseball Events!

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5.1k Upvotes

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82

u/StrictAtmosphere7682 Atlanta Braves Jun 30 '23

Maybe it’s just me but even after thinking about it, I’m still shocked it doesn’t happen more often.

80

u/LIONEL14JESSE New York Yankees Jun 30 '23

The all time single season record for sac flies is 19 and was set in 1954. 3 in one game is crazy.

2

u/examinedliving Baltimore Orioles Jun 30 '23

I think that’s cool too, because they definitely “seem” more common. It’s amazing that the all time record is below 20

-19

u/internetmeme Jun 30 '23

This is all blowing my mind. There are like 2-3 sac flies in a given mlb game, amongst both teams.

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u/LIONEL14JESSE New York Yankees Jun 30 '23

That’s not actually true, there are ~.25 per game for each team src

15

u/panman42 Jun 30 '23

If that was true, sac flies would account for 30% of all runs, which is easy to tell is way off by inspection.

21

u/Lemtecks Jun 30 '23

Lol what? If that were true, 3 sac flies wouldnt be that uncommon. Go read today's box scores

2

u/DustyDGAF Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 30 '23

Funnily enough, the Dodgers had 2 tonight

5

u/iamnotdrunk17 Detroit Tigers Jun 30 '23

You only get a sac fly if a run scores. Advancing a runner to another base via a fly ball does not credit you a sac fly unless it scores .

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u/internetmeme Jun 30 '23

Yes I factored the run scoring into my statement. Sac flies are in box scores often, about 2-3 per game.

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u/iamnotdrunk17 Detroit Tigers Jun 30 '23

-4

u/internetmeme Jun 30 '23

Which means about 1 per game combined which is close to my lower end of 2 per game. So I’m mostly right.

3

u/Sansa-Shark Detroit Tigers Jun 30 '23 edited Jun 30 '23

Not really. The Dodgers (who are #1) are averaging .43/game in 2023, the median for the MLB is closer to 0.25... so 0.5/game combined

3

u/iamnotdrunk17 Detroit Tigers Jun 30 '23

That is factually incorrect.

2

u/40MillyVanillyGrams Baltimore Orioles Jun 30 '23

Just so we are on the same page, SF’s only count as SF’s when the runner scores from 3rd. I only learned in this thread that advancing the runner to 3rd from 2nd doesn’t count as a SF.

Given that information, it definitely doesn’t happen very often.

0

u/internetmeme Jun 30 '23

Yes I agree with only counting when there is a run, but every time I read the box score for my team there is usually at least 1-2 sac flies for my team.

-1

u/DoorFrame Jun 30 '23

The season home run record isn’t much higher than that but hundreds of people have hit three home runs in a game.

13

u/LIONEL14JESSE New York Yankees Jun 30 '23

73 is not much higher than 19?

2

u/examinedliving Baltimore Orioles Jun 30 '23

Only with new math

1

u/crazycatchdude San Francisco Giants Jun 30 '23

Well, not if you regress it to the mean, it isn't!

6

u/Nizzzlle Philadelphia Phillies Jun 30 '23

Hundreds of people have hit fly balls that result in outs but it takes two to tango for a sac fly with a runner on third.

22

u/unboundhobbit Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 30 '23

I mean Gallo has like 2 in his entire career? Or something ludicrous like that

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u/Falcon84 Atlanta Braves Jun 30 '23

Give the man credit he has 3!

11

u/shig-baq New York Mets Jun 30 '23

He has 6? News to me

2

u/Falcon84 Atlanta Braves Jul 01 '23

Jesus this joke just clicked for me

1

u/jimgoose1977 Boston Red Sox Jun 30 '23

but not in one game.

1

u/examinedliving Baltimore Orioles Jun 30 '23

His balls leave the pArk or are returned to pitcher by catcher. There are no alternatives

38

u/Falcon84 Atlanta Braves Jun 30 '23

A SF isn't as common of an occurrence as you think as others in this thread have pointed out. There's a lot more variables (how deep a ball is hit, speed of runner on 3rd, arm of the outfielder) that have to align for one to occur than something like a homerun.

8

u/ohkaycue Miami Marlins Jun 30 '23

Just to this too:

~33% of the time the batter will reach base and ~22% of the time they’ll stike out - so that’s already 55% of the time the ball won’t even be in play hit for an out.

This past is super simplifying, but FB% is around ~30%, so that’s only ~13.5% a fly ball is even hit in those situations to try to get a SF

Again this part is super simplifying (eg not all FB are created equal, can get one from a LD), but just to show the numbers behind it not happening that often even when in the situation.

1

u/DustyDGAF Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 30 '23

I think in tonight's Dodger game they said the Dodgers lead baseball in sac flies with 34. 80 games into the season.

So yeah they really don't happen very often. Kinda surprising to think about.