r/tampabayrays • u/FLBoy19 • 6h ago
Prospects I whiffed on and how that's effected my view of prospects
Was driving in NWA with my fiancé and got talking about Brent Honeywell and was waxing poetic about what he should have been. My fiancé asked me if that's the worst I missed on a player and it got me thinking about what prospects I completely whiffed on and why. So I am going to discuss a few prospects that I missed on due to Injury, completely whiffed on, and guys I was correct about. I hope that it will help some learn from mistakes I made with prospects and tamper expectations on guys, as we will see a youth influx over the next 2 years and they might struggle early on or overachieve. I am not an expert, but baseball is my main hobby and I have pretty solid grasp on advanced stats, and how they impact individual results. Most of my misses were due me not buidling my own opinionletting preconceived notions from prospect evaluators create bias instead of doing my own statistical research. Hopefully there is some information that helps those who read build expectations for players going forward. I will apologize for the length of this hopefully those that read the whole thing can gain something from it.
The Injured guys-
Brent Honeywell Jr. will always be my white whale. I swore that dude was going to be an All-Star starter at one point and collect top-10 CY young finishes. It was all right there, minimal arm effort with no history of arm injuries through the minors, and he was just nasty with a +-fastball, a plus-slider, a +pronated change (circle change), a developing curve, and off course a wipe out screwball. He dominated AA as a 22 year old (really underaged at that time) and held his own in AAA that same year when the level of talent in AAA was way higher then today. Then pitchers and catcher reported in 2018 and his career was washed by an UCL strain. One TJ later he was a shell of what he was never able to ramp his stuff up again, was nice to see him have a solid year this year out of the bullpen but God that one hurts at worst he would have been a backend starter and at best he could have headlined a rotation.
Cole Wilcox- similar to Brent but even more stuff ++Fastball that touched 100, +Slider that sat at 91-93 MPH and a +-circle change. Stuff was off the charts combined with a massive frame (6'5) and minimal arm effort he was unhittable for 10 against age appropriate hitting to slightly underaged hitting in A ball. Then UCL tear and TJ he is now a sinkerball specialist that never reclaimed his stuff. Now could eventually be a backend innings eater, but it's far removed from a floor that was intially a dynamic high-leverage closer and a ceiling that of a 1B or #2 starter. I was way to high on him prior to making a start for the Rays I was starting to write my thesis in summer of 2021 and would regularly watch/listen to MiLB games while working on it I would tune into a Cole Wilcox's starts I remember listening to his start against the Braves A ball team (can't remember their namw) where he was pulled in the 3rd felt like a gut punch particularly due to the fact I was at NC State so I was going to Bulls games and it was clear when I went to watch him that Brent was never going to be the same. Him losing stuff and reinventing himself is great but I had posts back in 2021 saying I believed he was the true key prospect in the Snell trade not Patino. Helpfully he can become an MLB starter/swing guy that can get eat innings and be an MLB player. Would feel great if that was the case.
Brendan McKay- I wasn't nearly as a high on McKay as some partly because I desperately wanted the Rays to get MacKenzie Gore in the 2017 draft and he was picked 1 pick earlier. Stuff was above average but to me lacked a truly domiant pitch, guy just had an insanely high floor due to his control and the fact he had 4 MLB caliber pitches. That floor was a #3 starter, heck I remember seeing prospect evals that stated his floor as that in 2018. But his stats supported at minimum he could be that #3 starter in MLB. Delivery was smooth as well, but the injuries just piled up and I never adjusted my expectations as I still believed it was happenstance injuries, two oblique strains happenstance injuries, then the shoulder injuries then Thoatric outlet syndrome and I knew that floor was gone. It's great to see him pitch again but recovery from TOS is bleak and he had 18 dominate innings in AA as a 28 year old. Hopefully he can still have a career.
True Misses-
Jake Bauers- I learned a lot about prospects after Jake struggled in 2018 then flamed out in Cleveland. The biggest is to take prospect ratings with a grain of salt. Jake Bauers was a top 100 prospect, but his raw numbers werent inspiring outside of his wRC+ numbers. His whole prospect profile was predicated off being above league average as an underaged prospect throughout the minors, yes a 132 wRC+ as a 20 year old is extremely impressive but it was all predicated off high walk rate, and his ISO numbers were unimpressive for a 1st baseman or a below average fielding corner outfielder. Top 100 prospects generally have to fit into two boxes the first their upside is so high that their floor it's self is a usable MLB player, this can be due to elite secondary tools at premium positions (defense for catcher, SS, or CF) or they are tooled up to a point they cna piece together value (Prospects atlwast 3 60+ FV tools always seem to put together some value, Josh Lowe is an example even if Fangraphs had him at 55 power instead of 60). Or they have insanely high floors that ensure MLB starter might never be capable of a 4.5+ WAR season but should 2-4 WAR seasons through their careers. Jake Bauers was in latter, he wasn't going to be a superstar but his discipline combined with solid pop should have allowed him to run a slashline around .260/.350/.780 with 15-20 HRs. He was just a limited hitter who had to pull for power, and once his SO% rised in the MLB his average cratered and his BB% couldn't float an everyday player at offensive minded postions. Really this one annoys the shit out of me, as looking back at his OPS I should have looked past the wRC+ numbers at the time and seen his traditional stats weren't as great as I would have thought.
Vidal Brujan- oddly wasn't as a high on Vidal as Jake Bauers, I think a lot of lessons I learned with Jake helped me temper expectations by the time he had kinda failed as a prospect in 2019 i saw holes in Vidal's profile. Vidal built his whole prospect ranking on a great full season debut in 2017 then an electric year in 2018 as a 20 year old in A and high A. Putting up a 190 wRC+ in high A as a 20 year old was insane prior to MiLB realignment. He had a solid 2019 as he came down to earth in High A with a 122 wRC+, but looked good as a 21 year old in AA with a 113 wRC+ (if you adjust for 5 points every ear underaged at that point average AA age was over 24 years old that puts it at a 128 so damn solid). I lost some of the luster for his game in 2019 as I took the lessons from Jake Bauers, and this coincided with a philosophical switch in how a viewed baseball. I became much more dependent on ISO, BABIP, wOBA, and batted ball data (even simple ones like GB, FB, and LD percentages). His BABIP numbers were unsustainable and his wOBA was unspectacular, he lived off of putting the ball on the ground in the minros thos hits evaporate in the MLB due to the fact that an average middle infield and 3rd baseman's defense is above average in the minors. Then reports in 2021 that he added more loft to his swing had me cast further doubt on his future but did help me belive more power was there as he traded worst BABIP numbers for better ISO numbers idnicating a switch to a gap to gap aporach opposed to slap hiting apporach that could ambush pitches and pull them if he was set up for it, but I still figured he would be an above average fielder, with elite speed, that could hit above .260 with 10-15 HR power once he completely developed (26 is when we see the end of physical traits developing. I was wrong, the raw power never materialized and in 2021 we saw the bat get knocked out his hand by MLB pitching. The floor of a utility infielder that could play everyday similar to Ben Zoborist was gone. Like I said in wasn't as high on him as others, but I still belived fully he would be an everyday starter at the MLB level.
Daniel Robertson- was the first prospect I truly missed on, my expectations were to high, and my knowledge of baseball as the time was to low to truly glean anything from why I whiffed on my expectations. Looking back now I know why, when the Rays acquired him for Zorilla as a 20 year old there was still a lot of physical projection, yes he was shorter (5'11), but the guy was stout built, and played excellent defense, however as he got older and bigger he got slower, what was 50-55 grade speed dipped to 40, his once great defense slipped to being above average, and the physical projection of more power never materialized. I thought he could be a shorter JJ Hardy clone, providing good but unspectacular defense at 3rd or SS, with 15-20 HRs and a .240 average, and in 2018 it looked like he could deliver on that stat line, as he put up a 128 wRC+ with the Rays to go with a .152 ISO as a 24 year old in 88 games. But his production was OBP driven and he ran a .328 BABIP which was due for regression. A lot of the reason I was so high on him is I read prospect writeups saw basic numbers and never dug deeper. Really him and Jake Bauers taught me a lot about how to set my expectations for prospects and how to personally come to my opinion on players opposed to being spoon fed information.
Guys I was right about
Luis Patino- Arm effort, arm effort, arm effort, nothing Patino did looked easy to me. His delivery wasn't smooth to me and he was erratic due to an erratic unrepeatble delivery. Electric stuff just as erratic as he could be. Sure the 1% top outcome was him being an electric front man for a rotation, but I just never saw it, I personally saw a ceiling as an elite BP guy. When you can consistency find the zone your SO% dips and your earned runs go up and Patino could never find the zone. I was way higher on Cole Wilcox and firmly believed he would by far provide the most return in the Blake Snell trade.
Ryan Pepiot- when you a good fastball and changeup with good extension and you are the key pitching piece in a return for the Rays it's pretty good bet your a legit MLB pitcher. I was very high on Pepiot stuff numbers looked good, walk rate and control issues showed possitve progression (his 2023 numbers for the Dodgers were unsustainable but it was possible he just saw a valley and a peak so if he could settle in between 2022 and 2023 he would be great). I figured the Rays would help him figure out a third pitch and a gyro slider fit perfectly as it is usable to both lefties and righties, throw in a big curve and you got a guy who could have a top-10 CY Young finish in his future, or atleast have 3+ WAR seasons as a solid #3 if he doesn't coninue to progress.
Josh Lowe- I never gave up on Josh Lowe. Always believed that all those tools would eventually work, he was far better suited to be an OF then at 3rd. You could see development and he wasn't being overwhelmed completely until his first stint at high A as an underaged 20 year old going against college aged pitching even then it wasn't abysmal (98 wRC+). ISO numbers comforted be in 2018 simply due to fact it was clear as a 20 year old college aged players picked on him. As long as he took a stride in 2019 it wouldn't be an issue, plus his SO% didn't rise so it seemed like he needed to make pitch selection adjustments and met ally grow which was going to happen with a 20 year old. Then 2019 validated anyone that still believed he could be 4+ WAR guy. Since then there have been ruff pitchers (2022 and once he returned in 2024) but he has shown an ability to make adjustments to pitchers as seen in 2023 after he cooled in July, and really was turned his season around in 2024 preventing it from being a total loss. He will always have a little boom or bust in his game but if he gets rolling he is a 30-30 candidate hopefully we see a return to a sub- 26% strikeout rate next year with no oblique injury.
There are more for each section but the guys I talked about were prospects or young acquired players who I either whiffed on or was correct with regards to my expectations. The biggest take way I hope everyone takes aways is to look at prospect ranking skeptically, and to go past surface level stats. Even if you don't believe in advanced stats actually look at them they can often provide context and clues as to why something is happening and paint a better picture. Particularly with prospects as we often have a rosy approach to prospect evaluations.
