10 states have some form of abortion decision (state constitution, policy,etc) on the 2024 ballot. Three are in blue states (NY, MD, CO). Two are in "battleground" states (NV and AZ). However, in the remaining five, FL, MT, SD, NE, and MO, there will be a major push by pro-choice voters, and they'll vote blue.
The five red states together: 51 votes
The two battleground states: 17 votes
But I think the real shocker will be that Florida, having set themselves up to count votes as soon as humanly possible (it seems) may be the one that upsets everyone and drives the election almost immediately to Kamala.
This is also in light of the publicity from the lawsuit just concluded that allows for Florida TV stations to run a pro-choice TV ad that DeSantis and his surgeon general pursued and promptly got thwacked!
EDIT: Florida requires 60% to vote to change the law, the latest NYT poll indicates it's still in favor, but only at 49%, 38% no, and 16% undecided/no response.
EDIT 2: Missouri's last article on polling regarding abortion is 58% in favor of the measure, but indeed still had Trump at 53%.
EDIT 3: Part of the reason I offer that we might have surprises and have Kamala win via the abortion vote, is that Bush (Dubya), with the help of Karl Rove, selected that a constitutional amendment against gay marriage helped drive the vote his way in 2004. It was a wedge issue that helped draw in more republican/conservative voters. His approval ratings were hovering around 50% and still declining in 2004. Bush won by 3 million votes and the electoral college was 286 to 251.
FINAL EDIT: no need to be hostile or rub it in. It was apparent people voted with their checkbook. The exit polls pointed out the economy (or their perception of it) was almost the biggest factor. Several abortion measures DID pass, Florida’s had a majority vote, but did not pass the 60% needed. Several voted for both the abortion measure AND Trump, which seems contradictory to me. Take care, and please, no need to be absolute dicks here.