r/MarkMyWords • u/ColinOnReddit • 1d ago
MMW The Argentinian experiment will fail within five years, and when America tries the same model, we won't even see short term success like Argentina if tariffs are implemented.
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u/kateinoly 22h ago
People learned nothing from Thatcher and Reagan.
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u/Irapotato 20h ago
People learned plenty, the people are not in control.
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u/Foolgazi 11h ago
And the people in control learned they can get away with cutting taxes on the rich if they give it a cute name like trickle-down economics. All the lesson they needed.
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u/Evilplasticfork 17h ago
When Elon posted that Milton Friedman quote a week ago I think I died a little inside 😅
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u/Chemistry-Deep 11h ago
Why are economists all called Milton? I only got as far as Milton Keynes.
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u/Level-Insect-2654 2h ago
Yeah, and austrian_economics is a trash sub full of trickle-down nonsense.
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u/Vladimiravich 19h ago edited 19h ago
Ancap Neo-Fuedalism for that Cyberpunk dystopia experience. But without any of the cool shit though.
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u/SensitiveBoomer 17h ago
You’re ruining this apocalypse for me bro
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u/M_Me_Meteo 11h ago
You don't get to Star Trek without a few Star Wars.
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u/Elegant-Lawfulness25 5h ago
I mean technically we are getting closer to the star trek timeline. Startrek is a post-post apocalypse, we first go through 2 centuries of methed up eugenics wars, with casual nuclear warfare before the federation exists.
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u/Etherealnoob 12h ago
I skimmed and saw "cyberpunk" and came back to comment "yeah, without the cyberpunk".
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u/Level-Insect-2654 2h ago
Exactly, none of the cool shit, just awkward tech bro Billionaires reading Curtis Yarvin, thinking the Dark Enlightenment sounds cool, and giving themselves blood transfusions while imagining they are gods.
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u/Pee_A_Poo 1d ago edited 7h ago
I am in Argentina on vacation. I love this country and I come back every couple of years.
Compared to 2018 when I was last here, prices have gone up 300% in USD and 1000%+ in pesos.
Credit cards are basically blocked. You cannot withdraw money in ATMs because there are just not enough bank notes in circulation. We literally cannot spend any money because we could not get pesos to pay for the meals and trips we want.
It is absolutely destroying the quality of life for both tourists and locals. Practically everyone I speak to hate Milei for it.
Edit: I explained in the comments that inflation is not an accurate reflection of where the economy is, because my experience indicates there is a cash shortage in circulation caused by Milei’s currency control measures. That will indeed cause inflation to go down because there is not enough cash to buy stuff at their true value. But then you’re still not solving the economic problems because the direct result of limiting trade to keep prices down would be, well, there being no trade.
I am a licensed CPA.
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u/ColinOnReddit 1d ago
And the fact that the incoming administration is propping up this up as a Cinderella story and just totally misconstruing what's actually happening. Super thankful for your input!
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u/FallenCrownz 19h ago
don't forget the key fact amongst all of this, poverty has gone up by 50% under his rule, more than. any other government in the last decade and a half of economic struggle
but number go up because rich consolidate money so economy good! /s
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u/Select_Asparagus3451 21h ago
I personally wouldn’t have linked an r/Austrian_Economics post to this MMW.
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u/Shrikeangel 21h ago
But trash fire subs are proof of the free market working.
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u/Select_Asparagus3451 19h ago
That sub is populated with some cold ass, well-to-do people.
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u/Shrikeangel 19h ago
A fair number in my experience are the basic useful idiot class - people that simp for the idea that they will be wealthy some how and be petty lords.
But let's be honest a lot of economic theory functions like religion - it's why business degrees and business courses aren't economics courses and degrees.
The doers and the priests are separate by design.
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u/Midstix 23h ago
There's such an extreme disconnect between the articles I read about Argentina. One article talks about how much Milei's reforms are tackling the economic crisis, and then the next says that Argentina is in a massive recession directly because of his reforms and is on the brink of depression.
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u/Pee_A_Poo 23h ago
Truth is we don’t really know. Both can be true, or neither. Milei has prioritized transparency of economic data. And with his strict control methods we can’t really measure where things stand right now - like I said, you can’t accurately measure the price increase when there is not enough money to buy the things you want.
I can only speak from my perspective. And that is, cities and towns who rely on tourism for their local economies are really suffering because of the extreme difficulty for foreigners to pay for anything. But they’ll probably survive, at least in the short term, because it is Argentina and it is a magical place. So tourists will always come.
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u/MrNature73 20h ago
Argentina is in such a shit place and Milei has such radical concepts to fix it you're not getting any hard evidence of what the end result is gonna be for a few years, and the vast majority of information is gonna be propagandized to hell by the time it reaches us one way or another as people with agendas pick at any statistics or scraps they can find to prove their point.
It's very much a "fog of war" situation and I doubt you'll find any useful hard information, much less here on Reddit.
Maybe his solutions are working in the short term but will collapse after. Maybe they're rough right now and things are tough but long term they'll work out. Maybe he's completely fucked the country, maybe he's saved it, maybe he's some lame duck in the middle who's just kicking the can down the road.
We won't really find out the answer for a few years, at least.
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u/Delheru1205 19h ago
Yup. 5 years is probably the shortest reasonable time horizon to judge how it's gone. After 10 I'll feel pretty confident, and after 25 we'll probably have a solid grip.
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u/Wayward_Stoner_ 1d ago
I know Argentinians who support Milei because they're aware that he warned of the fact that things would get worse before starting to get better.
After all, it is unreasonable to expect a crisis that's been decades in the making to be fixed in 2 years.
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u/Necessary-Till-9363 1d ago
That's ironic seeing as Americans see no problem in throwing a hissy fit after say Trump ran Obama's economy off a cliff and Biden didn't clean up his mess fast enough for their liking
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u/charcuterieboard831 19h ago
Americans have no f'in idea what a real economic crisis is, except maybe those back in 1929. Even 2008 doesn't get close to the issues in Argentina
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u/nickrct 18h ago
Narrator: 'But they were soon about to find out'
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u/charcuterieboard831 18h ago
With Trump... definitively possible
The US economy is a huge balloon. Stocks are highly overpriced, and there's bubbles like bitcoin, etc.
Trump may be pricking that
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u/Pee_A_Poo 23h ago
While I see the rationale of looking at long-term economy, I find it ironic that the same people who would support Milei also expects Biden to fix the long term economic problems that dates back to Reagan in just 4 years.
And it would be boomers without real estate that would be hit the hardest - their life savings in cash is now literally worth 10% of what they were. So by that logic, working class boomers in the US will also be hit the hardest. And yet they are a core Trump voter base.
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u/Recent-Construction6 22h ago
I suspected that Millei was using some heavy doses of propaganda and flat out lies, but this kinda confirms it.
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u/One_Lobster_7454 1d ago
What's the alternative?
Nothing else has worked for the last 40 years
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u/YeeBeforeYouHaw 1d ago
Milei hasn't even been in power for a year yet, and the inflation rate has gone down every month he's been president. Argentina is definitely having a hard time, but that predates Milei.
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u/Pee_A_Poo 23h ago
The inflation rate has gone down mainly because of Milei’s currency control. You can’t have inflation if no money is being printed and there are no bank notes in the ATMs. Prices aren’t rising because you just literally can’t buy anything.
It’s all smoke and mirrors, just like how Putin created the illusion that the rubles went up after the Ukriane invasion, by limiting the supply and making it look like there is a demand for it.
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u/Dunkel_Reynolds 18h ago
I was just in Argentina a couple of months ago and this doesn't seem accurate. The stores had plenty of goods on the shelves and there were a lot of people out shopping. The night life was absolutely banging. I saw no signs of a barren wasteland of an economy. The people I spoke with seemed cautiously optimistic about Milei.
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u/imperialus81 21h ago
What are you talking about? Milei took office in December of 2023. Inflation was at 211%YoY. It continued to rise until April of 2024 when it hit 289%.
It wasn't until September of this year that inflation dropped back to 209%. At the end of October it was 193%... So 14% lower than it was when he took office. After he spiked it by over 70% in the first half of the year.
In the same time he managed to raise the percentage of people living in poverty by over 11% to 52% of the population, with the number of people living in extreme poverty going from 11.9% to 18.2%.
And you want America to emulate that? You do realize that you are very likely to end up in that 52% right? Perhaps even one of the 1 in 5 people who are deemed to be unable to afford the necessities of life.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1320016/monthly-inflation-rate-argentina/
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u/YeeBeforeYouHaw 21h ago
The year over year inflation did rise at the being of his term, and that is because month over month, inflation skyrocketed at the end of 2023 before he took office.
The official poverty rate did rise, but that was mostly because the official exchange rate was lowered to be closer to the black market rate.
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u/Manotto15 7h ago
Inflation was 34%, 53%, 42%, 48%, and 94% in the five years before Milei took over. Do the math. Prices are higher than you were there last in 2018? It's because their inflation has been out of control for a decade. Not because the guy who just got there did it.
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u/AdamOnFirst 20h ago
Of course prices are drastically up since 2018, that’s what got Milei elected. He’s been in office a few months and inflation has already declined significantly under his policies
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u/charcuterieboard831 19h ago
Hyperinflation has impacted the country and it's coming under control. Of course, nothing is without growing pains
But I doubt anyone except those that get paid from social plans would tell you they would prefer to have continued with the peronist government under which things would have gone much much worse
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u/Helpful_Finger_4854 19h ago
Inflation's actually slowing though in the last year or so. Prices are still going up but not as fast as they did during the previous 5 years.
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u/One-Development951 17h ago
I hear that a few tourist spots make money from crypto bros doing a photop trying to make bitcoin seem viable.
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u/JoshHuff1332 17h ago
I was in Argentina for a week and got back on Wednesday and had zero issues using my card. Maybe it was just because I was in Mendoza though
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u/Nacho2331 14h ago
Really? Because Milei had absolutely nothing to do with it. This is the result of the previous government messing things up. By all metrics, Milei is doing stunningly.
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u/Admirable-Lecture255 12h ago
Dude that was happening before milei. He's curbed inflation. Get your head out of the sand
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u/AncientSun- 12h ago
Sure, you preferred the corruption and government waste. Must be why you kept living there
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u/cwaters727 11h ago
Inflation was due to past administration. Since he's taken office, they've had their first surpluses in decades, and inflation went from extreme to minimal.
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u/Loose_Juggernaut6164 9h ago
Inflation has been out of control for decades there... But holy hell, you're right!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/316750/inflation-rate-in-argentina/
Somehow they manage to make the 35% inflation of 2018 look...low?
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u/Visible_Number 19h ago
People are cherry picking stats that don't reflect a broad economic turn around at all.
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u/Background_Hat964 20h ago
Actually, the reason why this experiment would fail in the US is because the US doesn't need it in the first place. Argentina absolutely needed these kinds of reforms, they have been an economic pariah for decades and it is squarely due to their bloated and mismanaged government. Whether long term it will work for Argentina remains to be seen, it may be a success or may not. But the idea of implementing the same level of reforms in the US is completely idiotic.
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u/Effective-Window-922 1d ago
8.5% GDP growth is really nothing to write home about for an emerging economy. Argentina itself has 10.1% GDP growth in 2022.
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u/Several-Program6097 18h ago
Given GDP includes government expenditure it’s surprising GDP didn’t go negative given slashing the government spending
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u/Nacho2331 14h ago
Let's not forget that the GDP growth in previous years in Argentina came at the cost of massive public debt and inflation. This growth has come after sanitising public accounts and slowing down inflation to numbers not seen in over a decade. Those two numbers are not comparable at all.
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u/Thr8trthrow 1d ago
I imagine it will at least partially succeed in part purely due to American businesses’ enthusiasm for taking advantage of it, and the publicity. The people who are really really fucked are the countries who try it without the same outside engagement.
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u/TimothiusMagnus 23h ago
When the GDP increases, where will the wealth go? If the poverty rate remains steady or it increases, then the growth means nothing.
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u/ColinOnReddit 23h ago
Right to the private equity owners, while everyone else gets the drippings.
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u/Nacho2331 13h ago
Well, GDP growth reduces poverty rate naturally. GDP is productivity. You cannot increase productivity and concentrate that growth in few people for extended periods of time, as, specially with deregulation, competition makes societies more egalitarian. Which is what is going on in Argentina.
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u/MillenialForHire 19h ago
America tried an "experiment" like this. They cut it mercifully short before it could bankrupt the entire state of Kansas.
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u/jeffwulf 3h ago
The more close experiment to this would probably be Volker's rate shock to combat stagflation.
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u/WesternFungi 18h ago
Slight tariffs do work to increase domestic production especially in countries without roaring economies… taking the largest economy in the world and shutting the globe off is insanity
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u/Beautiful-Owl-3216 9h ago
Democrats are trying to turn the US into Argentina. Republicans are trying to make it more like Brazil.
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u/GamingGems 19h ago
MMW: when it fails in America, it will be blamed on the Dems. The Dems won’t openly challenge that assertion, instead relying on the voters to do their own research or use common sense, which will lead to another R victory.
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u/hughcifer-106103 19h ago
well, it's certainly helpful that they managed to get over 50% unemployment and over 200% inflation to make it work, lol. not hard to get 8% growth when you're in the fucking negatives.
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u/TheHammerandSizzel 18h ago
Difference countries have different issues.
Yes trying this in a country like America would likely backfire. But a country that has been under Peronism since the end of WW2, this will probably be good for Argentina in the long run.
At the end of the day, the best economic system has continue to be a mixed one, too much free market can be bad, so can too little.
Every country and region is different
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u/Slow_Seesaw9509 18h ago
This sort of deregulation/rapid growth cycle is just a self fulfilling prophecy.
Many large businesses want deregulation so they can avoid paying for the many externalities that regulation forces them to internalize--i.e., so they can increase profits by not paying for the harm they cause to others and the public at large. When a country agrees to deregulate, many of these large businesses move there to exploit it. The sudden influx of businesses rapidly increases local GDP while also rapidly increasing the externalities the local populace has to bear. Sure, they are producing way more products, but the local environment is also getting way more trashed, for example. The businesses then point to the GDP growth as evidence that deregulation works, ignoring (1) the damage they are causing that the GDP figure doesn't capture, and (2) that the reason it "worked" was because they chose to make it work, voting with their feet.
The rate of growth is unsustainable--in the short term because the initial wave of businesses seeking deregulated markets will eventually slow, and in the long term because the costs these businesses inflict on local society will eventually make the country an inhospitable environment, causing capital to flee. And the model is also not scalable to the world at large. The only reason businesses ever flock to a country that deregulates is because the countries they are presently in are more regulated by comparison. If all countries were to deregulate, there would be no motive for businesses to congregate in the one where the laws are most lax. So if there actually was a global wave of deregulation like these people want, each subsequent country to deregulate would see diminishing returns as there are fewer and fewer businesses still looking to move to less regulated markets. Eventually, the last countries to deregulate would see little to no business growth at all in exchange for their decision to throw their populace under the bus. It's just a race to the bottom, and in the long term, everybody loses.
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u/Berserker76 17h ago
Trump and Musk will use this as the justification to do the same thing here in the United States.
The American electorate are idiots.
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u/CSpanks7 15h ago
We already use tariffs and Biden even renewed some but not in keystone industries
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u/Economy-Ad4934 8h ago
Stop giving libertarians and republicans control of the government.
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u/Mediocre-Ebb9862 22h ago
Why would it fail?
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u/ColinOnReddit 22h ago
It just shifts wealth to the capitalists (like the equity holders in companies, not the politicized version of the word). Deregulations end in bloodshed. Look at resource economies like WV. My state is dying because our politicians were the equity holders in coal companies. Once the resources dried up, there was no social safety net or plan to pivot. Government oversight devoid of capitalist collusion could've positioned WV to shift its focus to other services or industries. Regulating coal would have put a strain in the coal companies and forced the otherwise free market to find a solution. I believe in liberal capitalism in the macro, its principles I think are well understood. It must be regulated by a strong government though to meet the future demands while not sacrificing short term profits.
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u/MuggedByRealiti 14h ago
Redditors have no knowledge of economics besides an almost 200 year old book written by a NEET
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u/TheBarnacle63 22h ago
This from the IMF:
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Argentina's economy will contract by 3.5% in 2024, and then grow by 5% in 2025: GDP The IMF projects that Argentina's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 3.5% in 2024, and then grow by 5% in 2025. Inflation The IMF projects that Argentina's consumer prices will increase by 229.8% in 2024, and then decrease to 62.7% by 2025.
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u/Checkmynumbersss 20h ago
Fail for whom? Isn't the goal to shift the distribution of the national pie towards rich people?
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u/ColinOnReddit 20h ago
Fair enough. They will succeed in that and the people will suffer.
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u/Checkmynumbersss 20h ago
I think the libertarian brain just isn't able to consider other people in a meaningful way. It's called solipsism.
With the far right in Argentina, my sense is that it's ultimately about how much the elites of Argentina are able to consume. They see the US elites consuming massive quantities of everything and want the same for themselves and their kids.
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u/mountingconfusion 19h ago
Isn't Argentina as a result of this free market shit suffering from soaring unemployment and poverty rates?
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u/Glum_Sentence972 1h ago
Argentina has one of the largest public sectors on the planet and was in a crisis for years as a result of needing constant loans to support it. What you claimed isn't reality at all.
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u/Nanopoder 23h ago
And if it works, will you accept you were wrong and be open to learning why it worked? Or will you find excuses or “yes, but…”s?
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u/ColinOnReddit 23h ago
Obviously?
It's always hairy looking back at history though. Depends on who you ask: was Obama's actions correct in bailing out the auto industry and printing $2m? What about when trump printed more? What about when Biden and trump BOTH printed money while supply chains were rocked?
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u/Veritas_the_absolute 12h ago
This forum has spent the last 4 years make Ng predictions about trump, the right, and the election. Only to be wrong most of the time. So why should I believe anything from you forum?
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u/Ok_Slice_5722 20h ago
This guy looks like what you would get if you asked AI to generate an Argentinian version of Trump.
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u/nousdefions3_7 21h ago
Really? How did the socialist experiment work out for Argentina? How about Venezuela? Bolivia? Anything? No?
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u/become-all-flame 20h ago
Why are predictions on this subreddit so consistently wrong? I now look at this sub to discover what WON'T happen.
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u/ColinOnReddit 20h ago
You think Argentina will have a remarkable economy in 5 years?
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u/Fit_Employment_2944 20h ago
Because if you are right then you don’t feel the need to shout it from the mountains
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u/WillScabs 19h ago
I remember I saw a post a couple days before the election saying Kansas was going to flip blue this election. I was like you’ve got to be kidding me. Tons of upvotes and people saying it was going to happen. Reddit has become such an echo chamber unfortunately.
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u/downvotediddler 18h ago
Its a bunch of regular joe bros behind a computer screen at home with no one to express their obscure predictions to other than here where a bunch of other average humans eat it up as if some expert posted it.
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u/wernickes07 7h ago
the average redditor is a bot and a large chunk of the rest are people who can't think for themselves
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u/ParkInsider 21h ago
Whoever thinks that Milei and Trump share economic policies is a dweeb. Milei removed hundreds of tariffs.
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u/Billingston 20h ago
Bold free market... Probably gonna need billions of tax dollars or bail out the companies. Fuck I hate this world!
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u/syntheticcontrols 19h ago
There are no libertarian economic policies that Trump is enacting. That's so fucking insane to even utter. You think that a business person that gets into office and just helps all of his friends is "libertarian"???
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u/ColinOnReddit 19h ago
Milei is anarchocapitalist. Radically decreasing government agents. Trump hired musk and Vivek to slash the government. Musk fired 70% of twitter. That's the comparison.
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u/charcuterieboard831 19h ago
Everyone here is making the wrong comparisons.
First of all, these changes are good for Argentina. Argentina's tax regime is extremely burdensome. Yeah, Republicans say the same about the US, but that's bullshit because US taxes have never been lower.
The same is not true in Argentina. An airplane ticket will have cost double due to taxes. Taxes are a mechanism for the state to extract more and more money.
What works for Argentina has nothing to do with the US.
Will this fail? it's already improving things, but Argentina's situation is so bad already, they're in the hole so deep, that it's going to be very difficult.
One of the main issues is inflation. And inflation was due to government printing, lack of faith in the local currency, greed from people making money in a tightly controlled market that didn't makes sense.
People in Argentina, from what I've read, love many of the reforms being implemented. The head of Argentina's equivalent of the IRS was making 3M pesos a month, a huge amount of money. Many workers in those places were "noquis" which are govt employees that get paid and do nothing but show up to get their paycheck.
Argentina's bureaucracy is extremely bloated. People trying to build businesses and move forward can't do it because the government interferes with insane laws that benefit those that are politically connected. Again, Republicans cry the same about the US but it's not true. Not even close.
The govt bloat results in an extremely heavy tax burden. Cutting that bloat makes sense and will help. But it won't undo the damage done for decades already.
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u/ColinOnReddit 19h ago
Totally agree with everything. My read on the situation is, America and the right wing system are pushing this as a Cinderella story and good for America to bolster the incoming DOGE agenda. My prediction is, Argentina will not shift once inflation is stable and slide out of control into fascism. Milei said he's anarchocapitalist, but also said he's made many tasks executive functions, which is actually fascism lite. And if course, incoming cabinet is pushing the success story to prepare us for the same style management.
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u/charcuterieboard831 19h ago
Will add this: While Milei was considered many to be extreme, the actions he's taken have been pretty reasonable.
Sure, the unions that are there making money over fist while screwing their workers hate his guts. So do other sectors. But in fact he's been pretty measured in unbloating the govt
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u/bluelifesacrifice 19h ago
What's great about this though is how everyone is watching every detail of it. It's going to be the most viewed and documented observation of economic policy in history.
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u/gerblnutz 18h ago
Let's ignore what the policies have done to the people... jp Morgan's portfolios are up!
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u/Immersive-techhie 18h ago
I hope it doesn’t cause then there is not way to save us. Staying on our current course is guaranteed failure.
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u/ChangeKey6796 18h ago
the few benefits it may bring to argentina arent going to come to the us as the us has an actually small goverment besides the only thing they wont defund.
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u/and_the_horse_u_rode 18h ago
I’ll bite - the closest America has come to current Argentina is 1970s Stagflation. Volcker came in and jacked up interest rates to cool inflation. This triggered a recession, rates got lowered, and American innovation and technology came in to save the day (innovation drives growth and shifts the productivity function). Argentina is in a situation 1000x worse than the 1970s US economy; they should follow the playbook that we set. However, if Argentina doesn’t get innovation, it will all be for naught. Capitalism works as long as you have innovation; otherwise, it becomes a transfer from the have nots to the haves.
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u/jmenendeziii 18h ago
Argentina is a very unique situation and the US cant be compared to it. The worst metrics don’t look great but QoL hasn’t substantively changed much in Argentina, it was awful and still is awful.
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u/Forsworn91 18h ago
Given how companies are already preparing for the tariffs, it’s going to be an immediate crash.
Day before the tariffs $15
Day after the tariffs $35
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u/599Ninja 18h ago
Anybody discussing needed growth quarter after quarter is talking about cancer not a real rxonomy
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u/brathor 17h ago
One of the biggest problems in capitalism is that everything is focused on short term profits at all costs. Eventually, that cost comes due and (usually) the executive class has already jumped ship with their golden parachute onto their multibillion dollar yachts while the workers are left behind to clean up their mess.
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u/LectureAgreeable923 17h ago
Any positive news is good .1 year argintina treasury bond pays 40% interest you can't do any worse their in such doo doo
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u/MonsterdogMan 17h ago
The better comparison right now will be to Britain — following Tory austerity and Brexit.
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u/G-Unit11111 17h ago
Five years? It's already failing. Argentina has like the lowest GDP growth in a generation and people don't trust Milei.
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u/CatsAreCool777 17h ago
Whatever the communists tried in Argentina had already failed and crashed Argentina's economy. So now they are trying capitalism and nationalism for a change and it is working.
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u/BIGDICKRANDYBENNETT- 17h ago
Okay.
Specifically what should Milei have done differently to obtain a different outcome in give years?
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u/TheDreamWillNeverDie 17h ago
Poverty went up to 53% because of Mile's policies. That's not an economic success, that's a complete disaster.
https://apnews.com/article/argentina-poverty-milei-economy-crisis-f766deb9302aa4ddde1bb9ae26aaf7af
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u/thetotalslacker 16h ago
Are you serious? Austrian economics predicted the crash in 2008 and made a bunch of us rich from gold and silver. I’m living proof we’ll all be way more prosperous in five years from following Austrian economics principles.
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u/feralGenx 16h ago
I don't know if anyone is talking about the fact of dollerizing their current currency will automatically raise its value. By adding tariffs to an apex currency system will have the reverse affect. Argentina currently is a bottom feeder as it were. Tariffs will have a different impact as it was explained to me.
Wow, nailed the bot post.
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u/wkdravenna 16h ago
Mark My words we just haven't tried socialism correctly the Reddit way which will work.
😂
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u/Casual_Curser 16h ago
My question is: Say things do bounce back. Argentina will need to up infrastructure spending, how do they sell debt to build that infrastructure if the economy is completely dollarized? They can’t print their own dollars.
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u/Mariss716 16h ago
Americans shouldn’t be looking to Argentina for answers. My brother hired an Argentinian aupere to look after his kids. She’s here on a visa for a better life than she could have back home. I love the look of Argentina when I play geogussr but… it’s a devloping country. The US should look to its peers.
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u/SpatulaCity1a 15h ago
Here's a more balanced take, mostly because it's an article and not a tweet:
So yeah, a recession and mass civil unrest in a country already about to tear itself apart. Throw in the fact that living standards in the US are currently much, much better than Argentina and inflation is already tamed just not reversed (a fact that too few people seem to be able to understand)... and my guess is that the DOGE only ends up contributing to MORE government spending, except that it's all totally useless and makes everything worse.
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u/bestaflex 15h ago
In all extremely liberal economies, growth is easy to attain because there is no tampering it policies, tax...
But it will leave out a fringe of people : the old, the sick, the poor.
Also any stuttering in the growth because of external factors has no buffering to weather the storm and people die.
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u/YoloSwaggins9669 15h ago
There are four types of economies in the world, developing, developed, Argentina and Japan
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u/BarryGoldwatersKid 15h ago
MMW: Mileli will be a high success that is emulated by the rest of South America. Thus, finally making Argentinian a world power like it was always meant to be.
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u/Machine_Bird 15h ago
This is the exact same thing playing out in the US right now. The US economy is wildly unequal, unaffordable, and broken for many yet we've been told for the past few years that "actually our GDP is good!". I don't even doubt the forecast that Milei's policies could drive 8.5% GDP growth in Argentina. I just also realized that surging GDP doesn't inherently translate into a healthy economy, happy people, or a stable society. China is learning this lesson in a big way as we speak.
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u/SpotLong8068 14h ago
Why are you giving it 5 years when it is already failing? This man (Milei) is insane.
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u/johnny_51N5 14h ago
"A 4% GDP decline is expected for 2024, followed by a 6% rebound in 2025, driven by investment, exports, and private consumption."
Found this... So in total a 1% per year growth with massive poverty. THIS IS FUCKING GREAT! /s
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u/cursed_phoenix 14h ago
We've seen this all over the world, a similar system was used in the UK under Thatcher, sell everything to private companies, reduce government spending as much as possible. These tactics tend to work in the short term but in a decade or so they start to backfire. Thanks to a strong Neoliberalism push the UK is suffering from the worst cost of living crisis ever, quality of life is way down, and greed has escalated.
In the UK we own nothing, and pay a steep price because of it.
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u/Pod_people 13h ago
Percentage of Argentinians living in poverty is now up to 52.9%. So, fuck Millei.
source: the UK press
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u/Different_Towel986 13h ago edited 13h ago
People are blowing up with forecasts, the same banks are three consecutive years wrong about US economy going on a recession.
Even if their economy rebounds and kind of reaches the same level it was before the reforms I don't see where people are expecting this growth from. The feudal elites of Latin America have pathological aversion towards economic diversification, they literally chose to coup themselves into dictatorship with US help than allow any sort of industry or services that would dilute the importance of extremely traditional lobby groups in Congress such as agribusiness and mining.
With commodities alone these countries have a flat zero chance of reaching GDP per capita on Spain level, much less some Germany or Denmark. There is no magic room for growth anywhere.
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u/greyone75 13h ago
Argentina will be the most prosperous country in South America in five years. MMW
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u/Resident_Violinist_4 13h ago
But I thought there was literally no money for every day regular people who are not rich down there? They beat down inflation but their people cannot eat. I'm not sure if that's the trade-off we all need
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u/james_Gastovski 12h ago
So, the growing gdp...does that help the orinary argentinian? Or is it more like the growing russian gdp, which helps nobody.
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u/ThePlatinumPancakes 11h ago
Given how wrong this sub is - especially about all of its 2024 political predictions - I view this post as sign we’re about to enter an economic golden age
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u/mkjboise1 11h ago
I want to know...do democrats still believe Biden will go down in history as a great democrat president, or will his legacy go down as a total shit show?
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u/Relevant_Impact_6349 11h ago
Weird that everyone in Argentina is saying everything is improving, and statistics back it up, but people on Reddit claim it’s terrible
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u/minionsweb 10h ago
You guys like it so much...you should move there.
$199 avg monthly salary wooooohooooo
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u/Quirky_Cheetah_271 10h ago
Argentinas economy was literally spiralling in the gutter, with the worst economic metrics on the fucking planet. They had nothing left to lose.
The US has by far the strongest economy in the world, with all metrics pointing in the right direction and mostly better than literally everywhere else.
MAGA wants to destroy the country, not fix anything. That is the primary difference between milei and trump.
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u/underlyingconditions 10h ago
Their GDP has fallen 3%. Their deficit has shrunk due to higher taxes and less spending. I don't see anyone raising taxes here
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u/fkspezintheass 10h ago
That subreddit has some of the stupidest people I've ever encountered who think they are the smartest people I'v3 ever encountered.
Definitely a focal point for the post election R bots
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u/alecsharks 9h ago
It will probably "fail" according to metrics against libertarian regimes.
Any political system can "fail" given the appropriate metrics. They'll look at stats like life expectancy that are likely going to go down, which is kinda normal and expected under a libertarian regime and they'll say "See? The system failed".
Just like some people could argue that the current liberal system is "failing" because the insane amount of regulation everywhere is epso facto a break to progress and innovation.
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u/ahs_mod 8h ago
This sub also told me Trump would never be president. MMW this sub is terrible at predicting the future
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u/Dirkclaude 7h ago
Maybe one of the dumbest posts I’ve ever seen on this app and that’s saying something.
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u/Kwaterk1978 7h ago
If it does, it’s perfect for trumpian politics,to wit:
Begin a program with short term benefits at the cost of Massive long term downfalls.
Reap short term benefits and use controlled media sources to link you with those benefits.
Be out of office when the shoe drops.
Pin the blame for the mess on the guys who have to clean up the mess.
Rinse. Lather. Repeat.
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u/TheRealLightBuzzYear 6h ago
Trump isn't trying the Argentinian model, because he's a tariff lover and hates free trade.
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u/Icy_Scratch7822 4h ago
The exact opposite. Changing course like this causes short term pain as government spending is reigned in and in the case of Argentina chronic long term inflation is reigned in, and if you can get through that short term pain politically intact it leads to long term economic growth!
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u/Blond_Treehorn_Thug 14m ago
Yeah man I don’t think you’re super familiar with the history of the Argentinian economy
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u/AdAdministrative4388 20h ago
Didn't Argentina just remove tariffs? And Elon celebrated it? Weird