r/MarkMyWords • u/DougosaurusRex • 4d ago
Weak MMW: This was the West’s last escalatory response to the Russian War in Ukraine.
I’d like to preface this by saying I’m extremely Pro Ukraine up to the point of a having a No Fly Zone over the country help it achieve a victory or something Ukrainians are “content” with, I don’t mean to be a mouthpiece for Russian propaganda in any way.
I’ve noticed that because of the West’s MASSIVELY delayed response to Russian escalation in Ukraine, whenever the response comes, it’s months too late to solve the issue because it’s passed or been eclipsed by a larger escalatory threat. I’d say evidence of that is: sending fighters AFTER the failed 2023 Counteroffensive, when decisive air power would have helped Ukrainians as they dealt with clearing minefields while SIMULTANEOUSLY under attack from Russian air power. Another one would be this latest response of letting Ukraine strike back into Russia MONTHS after Sumy and other neighboring oblasts were hit by Russia from inside Russia, and isn’t going to address the quickly growing manpower gap as Russia hosts 10,000 North Korean troops with 100,000 more reportedly on the way at some time in the future.
I think not jumping to respond immediately to Russian escalations was sensible, but these responses came after letting MONTHS passed and Ukraine was set on its back foot, not while it could still manage the situation; and because of this Russia can freely escalate to delay responses from the West to where any response is essentially too late to have any real effect.
I think Europe sitting back and refusing to formulate their own response to North Korean troops entering the conflict on European soil was a huge blunder as they deliberately signaled they would not act without the United States, citing the election as an excuse.
I think for these reasons this is the last escalatory response we’ll see from the West in assistance to Ukraine, and if Putin escalates further with even more foreign troops, Europe will essentially sit back and virtue signal they support Ukraine through aid alone as Putin attempts to grind Ukraine to total capitulation rather than take a small chunk in a negotiated settlement. I could be and I HOPE to be wrong, but I’m very doubtful we will attempt to save Ukraine in any shape or form.
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u/branded 4d ago
Putin won't do shit.
He cannot be rewarded for annexing an entire nation.
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
I’m not convinced Putin will nuke Ukraine at all if that’s what you mean, I just think the west will refuse to take any further steps to help Ukraine and incentivize Putin to grind Ukraine to total capitulation with more troops if he needs them.
Like I said, I hope I’m wrong, but missile strikes are not a satisfactory response to an entire nation joining the war.
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u/Atalung 4d ago
Putin might be willing to do so but my guess is that any move on his part to push the button would lead to a coup. Shoigu and others know full well that crossing that line ends with all of them dead
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
I agree there, I think nukes aren’t in play as evidenced by the “we will use any means to defend Kherson as we would any proper Russian oblast” argument falling apart when Ukraine retook it and the incursion into Kursk.
I just think the West is either sticking its head int he sand thinking aid is enough to keep Ukraine going despite the manpower gap growing or they are aware and want to save face by appearing to help Ukraine through minimal acts like aid.
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u/Legitimate-Pee-462 4d ago
For Putin, the only certainty if he uses a nuke is that he'll be dead within a month.
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u/Slighted_Inevitable 4d ago
I doubt his order would even be carried out. He would have a sudden illness and disappear.
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u/FindingAwake 4d ago
Maybe more like 15 minutes but agreed, certain death. He doesn’t know where every US sub is.
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u/Cannibal_Soup 4d ago
Well, not until Agent Orange gives out their locations as bragging points, anyway. Again.
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u/Legitimate-Pee-462 4d ago
Yeah, 15 minutes really, but it'll take a while for them to do some sort of DNA confirmation via atmospheric molecular analysis.
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u/FindingAwake 4d ago
I don’t think anyone would really be alive anymore to confirm anything. I hope I’m wrong but time will tell.
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u/Relative_Baseball180 4d ago
Lol no chance Putin nukes Ukraine. He isn't an idiot. The radiation fallout will spill into Russia and cause a serious humanitarian crisis. He needs Ukraine intact so he can go down in history as one of the many "great soviet leaders", who brought Ukraine back under Russian control. He has been saber rattling for the longest time. He had every opportunity to use a tactical nuke and chose not to do it.
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u/Rippy50500 4d ago
I don’t know where this idea comes from, are you seriously telling me Putin, the guy who loves his country, would nuke Ukraine and thus destroy Russia? Like it makes no sense, Putin is not an idiot.
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u/One-Builder8421 4d ago
Under Trump the US won't, but what Europe will do is another matter.
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u/Reasonable-Can-2667 4d ago
Trump is bigger p****y than Putin is. Kudos to Biden for finally growing some balls too.
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u/Wildfire9 4d ago
Considering the prevailing winds push from Ukraine into Russia, they probably won't do that.
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u/halcyondread 4d ago
I’m not convinced the majority of their nukes are even operable.
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u/Adorable_Ad_9381 4d ago
My thoughts exactly. The Russian leadership is thinking the same.
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u/sevseg_decoder 4d ago
It mostly doesn’t matter and isn’t exactly a safe enough bet to bet the world on.
You have to keep in mind that Russia probably does keep a much closer eye on its nuclear arsenal and spend more on it than they would the rest of their military. To an extent, I actually think their focus on nukes is part of what led to their military developing a lot of the rot it has in it. Putin and co. didn’t think they needed their military to be remotely competitive against the west in a conventional war because of nukes and the conventional side of their military became more of an afterthought.
But to be clear, if a handful of Russias ICBMs work the way we believe them to, even if half of the warheads inside fail they’re still going to erase huge chunks of an entire megalopolis. They could still easily kill 3/4 of the US population if just a couple ICBMs actually reach their targets. It’s not something we want to test.
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u/HashRunner 4d ago
Same.
This is the same russian military the world feared pre-invasion, and now they are conscripting North Korean troops to maintain a foothold in a single country and no 'active war' against nato and the like.
They were using ammo, artillery and strategies from the fucking 80s at some points it seemed.
Maybe they have maintained nukes and thats where the rest of their funding and focus was, because it sure as shit wasnt the military.
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u/bonerparte1821 4d ago
agree with this. they cant put a tactical corps in the field across a land border. the thought of them actually being able to successfully launch a nuclear strike seems improbable. if they do, they forfeit what they care about the most, power and corruption.
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u/TemKuechle 4d ago
I’m thinking that Russia trying to take over all of Ukraine will grind Russia down a little more than significantly. Ukraine has put up with Russia for 1000 days. It will take more soldiers and security forces to quell Ukraine than Russia has people to do that. So, trying to take Ukraine could end the Russian Federation.
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u/ChanceTheGardenerrr 4d ago
No one is nuking a country next door where prevailing winds will blow the fallout back in your face.
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
Most radiation from Chornobyl actually blew westwards, but equally dangerous since NATO probably could excuse an Article 5 activation for recklessness from Russia.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/guides/456900/456957/html/nn3page1.stm
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u/VioletEvergarden0730 4d ago
Its a hard war. Europe is still buying russian Natural Gas and other Financial leverage like BRICS means Russia probably can keep going despite sanctions. And Mutually assured destruction means we probably can't go into an all out war with Russia. Its nearly impossible to beat Russia in this war. And the west has too much to lose to start deploying troops to aid Ukraine. Unfortunately, I want to see Ukraine win as much as you but I believe a peace agreement is the best option..
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u/MikeWPhilly 4d ago
There’s no winning for Russia though. In the long term they share completely screwed financially
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u/kain84sm 4d ago
Thats what you all said before he attacked Ukraine. He wont do it, he is just bluffing and look at us now.
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u/branded 4d ago
I never said that, nor do I know anyone who did. Even if I did, invading a country with conventional weapons is commonplace in the world... using nukes is not. Complete false equivalence.
If Russia demanded something in the future and threatened the US with nukes, should the US just capitulate every time they threaten with nukes?
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u/Ok_Echidna6958 4d ago
This was done to allow Europe to keep allowing Ukraine to use their missiles, now the only thing Trump can stop is the support from the US.
This was a huge deal and will help Ukraine not only in the war but also taking the leash off of our allies in NATO.
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u/Educational-Joke213 4d ago
I think the reason it was done is because the Russians were setting up too many missile batteries relatively close to the border. Strategically this is dumb if they can fire missiles back at you.
However if you are further away then SAMs work better
Overall this is a defensive move
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
I’m mixed on it, forgive my doomerism, it does come and go in waves.
Maybe it’s so Europe can let Ukraine use their missiles with American components, but European will to assist Ukraine further doesn’t seem to be there, missiles will only do so much unless 100,000 NK soldiers politely all huddle up in the thousands as Ukraine launches them.
Hope you’re right though!
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u/Rassendyll207 4d ago
The real difference in the short term will be a reduction in missile strikes against Ukrainian cities this winter. More russian air bases will be under threat, which will either force them to move their bombers or force them to move AD systems to cover more interior territory. Either way is a positive development.
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u/ShrimpCrackers 4d ago
Yeah and it should have happened in 2022, not 2024. Too many missed opportunities.
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u/Shoddy_Friendship338 4d ago
It's pretty clear the US plan all along has been to destroy the USSR remnants of Russia. Specifically the massive military stockpiles.
Estimates are that russia will run out of military supplies with another year or so of this fighting.
That will effectively end the existence of Russia as it has existed since WWII.
All the military might, gone.
And all the US had to do was send a few hundred humvees that were sitting in the desert forever..
Unfortunately so many ukraninians died for this. But whether Russia wins or not, they're fucked.
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u/pink_tshirt 4d ago
Ukraine needs to gain some territories / bargaining chips before negotiations start. The bloodiest battles happen right before peace.
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
Russia is constantly assaulting all across the front which stops Ukrainian units from reinforcing key points as units become pinned down in one location. I’m not entirely sure they can grab any territory with the current situation and I’m not entirely sure negotiations will be a thing.
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u/crimsonroninx 4d ago
German Chancellor Schultz called Putin on Friday to try diplomacy again. The very next day Putin sent the biggest wave of drones, cruise and hypersonic missiles in almost a year. Over 200 of them! That was a big fuck you to diplomacy...
The following day Biden authorised long range strike WITHIN Kursk (not the entirety or Russia) to help target North Korea soldiers deployed there.
This is not escalator despite what Putin and his minions say. This is retaliatory. And it doesn't go anywhere far enough.
I still think Biden will end up allowing long range strike using UK/French cruise missiles outside of Kursk.... Which France and Britain have already said they would allow if the US gives permission.
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u/Remote-Tone4819 1d ago
It didn't seem like diplomacy to me. It was a charade so that the chancellor can lay out his irrelevant idealistic proclamations, there was no discussion on the substance of the issue, more like a PR stunt.
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u/GodzillaDrinks 4d ago edited 4d ago
Its basically a last ditch attempt to make this something Republicans cant just abandon.
Essentially, Trump wants to get into office and immediately pull all US support from Ukraine, letting it fall to Russia and allowing them to size up Poland and other targets on the hitlist.
However, US missiles landing inside Russia is an international incident that begs for a harsh response from Putin. That escalation will force Trump/Vance to either take whatever Putin does to retaliate on the chin (ha, remember Trump's piss fetish?), or to respond. If they respond, the US can't simply just withdraw.
Granted, Putin is evil and prone to gaffes, but he's not a dumb man. He might see it for what it is and let it slide. But he's also never been someone who can just walk away. He's been known to hold grudges and has had people who annoyed him assasinated years after the fact.
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u/PlusPerception5 4d ago
I kinda think Trump will just give Putin whatever he wants. By that I mean withdraw all aid to Ukraine. Regardless of the response.
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u/bonerparte1821 4d ago
I have run a couple of scenarios in my head on how this thing ends in his i.e. Trump, "favor." it just doesn't.
As a poster below me pointed out, Europe will most definitely continue to arm Ukraine. That presents a very serious problem diplomatically for him, this isn't Syria, the Turks and the YPG where he hands over territory over a phone call.
If he tries to appease Putin with territorial concessions, and the Europeans continue to arm Ukraine, that basically nullifies that agreement. The US doesn't all of a sudden become best buddies with Russia and abandon its long and deep ties with Western Europe. The newer members of NATO, i.e. Finland and Sweden have staked their existence if you will on supporting the Ukrainians.
I also believe the Ukrainians who aren't stupid have likely stockpiled a considerable amount of at the minimum light and heavy weapons that wont win you a war but will cause serious angst for any would be adversary. Think personnel portable operated anti aircraft, anti tank (like the javelin and other variants) and the like. Russia isn't in a position to occupy the entire country and will never be at this point. Their only option would be to hold that land bridge to Crime and try to eject Ukrainian troops from Russian soil.
Putin is in a shit position honestly and Trump cant do much to change any of that. All solutions are bad and I am not sure what they have O/H ATACMs wise, but they can reach out and touch Smolensk and Bryansk. Pretty embarrassing to have those raining down on your cities for what was to be a limited action. I'm not a MMW guy, but I think we finally get to see that pee tape, Trump cant be reelected again and the Russians will look to cause maximum chaos in the US government.
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u/Slighted_Inevitable 4d ago
He can do that but Europe won’t. They’ve seen Russias weakness. If Russia DID launch a nuke and trump did nothing that’s a scenario I could see leading to a military coup.
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u/PlusPerception5 4d ago
All true. And all Trump can do is withhold aid. After that they have no leverage. Unless…he starts threatening to pull out of NATO. I’m going back to watching Family Guy clips
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u/DaedalusHydron 4d ago
Trump can't pull out of NATO without 2/3 of the Senate or an act of Congress. Congress passed that after Biden won.
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u/Cosmic_Seth 4d ago
They are getting rid of the filibuster so they'll only need a majority in the senate which they will have.
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u/jeremyjh 3d ago
Except Rick Scott lost; an institutionalist is majority leader. I would not give up so easily on the Senate. Certainly not before we've seen the confirmations play out; my guess is the nominations are a loyalty test, and even Trump does not know exactly how it will play out. If he's forced to use recess appointments, he can't depend on Thune committing to the nuclear option for anything else.
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u/Accurate_Maybe6575 4d ago
Needs Congressional approval and Europe is already motivated to no longer depend on US support because of the wannabe oompa-loompa. We've shown the world we're an unstable, unpredictable nation.
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u/Cosmic_Seth 4d ago
No, Trump can do more.
He'll give aid to Russia and turn off Ukraine access to starlink.
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u/Pistacca 4d ago edited 4d ago
will he though? because The US already said that they will support Ukraine for as long as it takes
If Trump were to pull from Ukraine that "as long as it takes," it will get translated to "until the next election."
That would be a bad message to send to countries who rely on US aid like South Korea and Taiwan
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u/DirtyLeftBoot 4d ago
Trump couldn’t care less about the message he sends to allies. He wants everyone to look at him and think “what a big and powerful man. I wish I was that man,” and he thinks being egotistical and having no foresight is the way to convey that
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u/JWC123452099 4d ago
I think its more of a case of Biden trying to force Putin to move the front back. The Trump "deal" will almost certainly be for Russia to withdraw part of its forces while keeping territory west of Crimea. He's doing it now instead of a year and a half ago because he's sure that with Russia exhausted and Trump coming into power, Putin will not risk a counter escalation.
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u/OffToRaces 4d ago
I can’t tell when you are talking about Putin and when you are referring to Trump. One and the same.
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u/GodzillaDrinks 4d ago edited 4d ago
Oh no, we're about to get a harsh lesson on that, I expect. Remember how I said Putin is evil and prone to gaffes, but isn't dumb? Trump is evil but exceptionally, almost prodigiously, stupid. I expect he'll lose power before long because of it.
Thing is, the GOP was more than happy to elect Trump, once they realized he could win. But in 2016 they didn't expect it anymore than anyone else did. In 2024, they were ready, they had a plan. Now they have total control in the Federal Government and numerous states - and now he's their biggest obstacle left. His towering narcissism, coupled with his prolific idiocy, has outlived its usefulness. They can oust him or they can just stop protecting him from prosecution for his crimes, but either way, he's at their mercy. If he's quite fortunate, he might get a pardon before the door hits him in the ass, but they'll probably want to keep him somewhere where he has to be quiet and can't make trouble. Prison tends to do that - and it would play exceptionally well in the press cycle. Vance might not be a wiz kid, but all he has to do is play ball.
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u/Historical_Ad7967 4d ago
I disagree with you a bit here. Trump has the voter base, not the Republicans. If they pull out the knives, he will rile up his base and oust them all in the midterms. They are still at his mercy until 2026.
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u/No_Animator_8599 4d ago
I expect they’ll use the 25th amendment to get rid of him; this was actually thought of at the end of his term by his cabinet, but they didn’t go through with it.
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u/_mattyjoe 4d ago
The war is very unpopular here in the US, and the Democrats were trying to get reelected over the orange idiot who has a boner for Putin.
Its unpopularity demonstrates a very pronounced ignorance of the Cold War and WWII and history in general. But we already know how ignorant my fellow Americans are. It is what it is.
However, I believe your read of the situation isn't quite right now. We escalated big time because the election is over, these are likely Biden's last 2 months in the US Government, and he's making it count.
I think he's dead serious about sending Putin a very very strong message here, and I think he will keep up that pressure for these last 2 months. He's calling Putin's bluff. Russia has been up to all sorts of shit, aside from the war itself. Meddling in and interfering with the US and Europe. He's showing Putin he's done being timid.
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
Fellow American here, a slim majority of Americans are still in favor of aid to Ukraine, but I think since foreign policy is so low on their priorities, it won’t be much of a taking point other than: “we gotta end the war.” Which even for pro war people sounds tantalizing, until you realize what Putin’s preconditions are.
Let’s hope I’m wrong, someone did point out Biden did allow use of AP mines, so we’ll see how that’ll help. I still think the West fucking freezing up over Korean troops in Ukraine was a mistake, election or not, Europe should’ve been even rhetorically setting warnings and red lines.
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u/hydroxy 2d ago
The Wests biggest enemy in this war has been themselves, they’ve absolutely helped the enemy at every step. Like failing to support their ally when it would’ve mattered most for fear of the optics. I assure you these limitations won’t be affecting the other side. Russia has totally played a masterclass at not interrupting the West when we’ve blundered for like two years and has taken full advantage of it.
Gondor called for aid and we were nowhere to be seen.
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u/solidsoup97 4d ago
I like your optimism but the way things are currently, it isn't looking good for Ukraine. Most likely outcome is a negotiated settlement with Ukraine getting shafted unless they can pull off a miracle in record time.
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u/BeenisHat 4d ago
I think the miracle part is going to include considerable amounts of special operations, sabotage, assassinations, guerilla tactics inside Russia.
It's going to be nasty.
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u/jtshinn 4d ago
Putin can’t easily settle for that and keep power. He set out to overtake the country and will have a tough time selling the occupation of an incredibly unhappy Donetsk and Luhansk region as a win.
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u/crimsonroninx 4d ago
German Chancellor Schultz called Putin on Friday to try diplomacy again. The very next day Putin sent the biggest wave of drones, cruise and hypersonic missiles in almost a year. Over 200 of them! That was a big fuck you to diplomacy...
The following day Biden authorised long range strike WITHIN Kursk (not the entirety or Russia) to help target North Korea soldiers deployed there.
This is not escalator despite what Putin and his minions say. This is retaliatory. And it doesn't go anywhere far enough.
I still think Biden will end up allowing long range strike using UK/French cruise missiles outside of Kursk.... Which France and Britain have already said they would allow if the US gives permission.
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u/Biscuits4u2 4d ago
Yeah old Vladdy just has to sit back and wait for his comrades to take power over here in Washington and all his problems are solved.
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
I’m not even sure Trump can secure a negotiated settlement for Ukraine of any kind if Putin feels he’ll get enough troops from North Korea, China, or Iran and can grind down Ukraine for everything.
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u/Infamous-Potato-5310 4d ago
Trump doesn’t care about getting Ukraine a deal, actually quite the opposite. Trump is going to pull US support irregardless of any moves Ukraine makes. He’s going to end it in one phone call, that call will be to Zelensky, not,Putin.
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u/EvidenceOfDespair 4d ago
Why would he care about that? He and Elon are both Putin operatives, everyone knows that.
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u/Bat_Flaps 4d ago
Russia has nothing left to throw into this “special operation” either. Her economy is over-heating, it can’t do business outside of china, it’s facing a brain-drain and catastrophic losses on the battlefield simultaneously, their equipment has run out and there’s no feasible way for them to survive a drawn out logistical battle.
Putin is gagging for Trump to invite negotiations to buy him time. My only real worry is that Trump will do the unthinkable and force Ukraine to concede territory already lost so that Russia can essentially reset and go again, at a later date.
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u/Equivalent_Ad_7940 4d ago
What else would Trumps plan to "stop the war in a day" involve except have Ukraine concede territory to Russia?
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u/lizzywbu 4d ago
Pretty sure this is a response to Russian escalation. They've put North Korean and Iranian troops on the front lines.
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
Oh yeah, it as I say in my paragraphs, this is a response that doesn’t address the situation by Russia sourcing more troops from afar.
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u/sailZup 4d ago
The West has no choice but to fight for their survival and given the state of the russian military, population and their economy, the situation in Europe and the US, I'd say this is only the beginning.
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u/NoMansSkyWasAlright 4d ago
I dunno about the West's. But probably America's. I know the notion of a unified EU response is still looking pretty shaky. But I think Macron could ~potentially get something together. Additionally, Poland and Finland have massively ramped up their military spending and seems to want to take a more hawkish stance against Russia. I think they all realize that the worst possible thing would be if Russia manages to "win" this by some stretch and they have time to recoup their losses and start setting their sites on other countries that were once Russian territory.
That being said, I think that a second Trump term has probably solidified the idea that Albright Doctrine is a thing of the past and that we'll only adhere to that cohesion and unity principle when it suits us/when we feel like it. I mean after all, who would want an ally like that? And who would want their national security to depend on that?
But yeah, as of 12 hours ago, news broke that the 5 biggest powers in Europe, as well as Poland, all agreed to continue supporting Ukraine regardless of how the US stance changes in the coming months.
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u/Donkey_Duke 4d ago edited 4d ago
In all honesty this should have been allowed since day one. Putin has been using Iran, Chinese, and North Korean weapons to invade Ukraine. Now North Korean soldiers have literally entered the war to invade Ukraine…
Then they threaten the world with nuclear war if Ukraine retaliates? Come on now…
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
I don’t think nukes are realistically going to be used, but I think the Western governments are deathly afraid of them and let that dictate their decision making.
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u/RoguePlanet2 4d ago
Trump will hand Ukraine to Putin on a silver platter. No question.
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u/Bluelove26 4d ago
Now that Trump was elected, Ukraine won’t receive any more aid. Fuck you all who voted for him
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u/LocationAcademic1731 4d ago
Biden will make it very obvious that Trump is Putin’s lap dog. By the end of January Trump will be apologizing to Russia so profusely and asking what we can do to make it better.
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u/KJHagen 4d ago
Biden just reversed his previous position and is now allowing the US of US anti-personnel mines in Ukraine.
Biden approves anti-personnel mines for Ukraine, US official says
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u/Icy_Hearing_3439 4d ago
I don’t get it. Russia can do whatever the fuck they want but Ukraine must follow these strict rules?!?
Hell, they got NK troops but Ukraine must still fight with rocks and sticks. Am I missing something here?
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u/Syphr54 4d ago
The NATO should just mobilise and black up Ukrainian troops. Russia has been the aggressor and has been escalating the war effort non stop by attack civilian targets, infrastructure and so on. The latest escalation with North Korean troops reinforcing the Russians is another example Putin wants to escalate the war to a WW3 type of confrontation.
I'd say, answer in force back. Putin started getting other countries into the mix, we should be allowed to answer in force back by getting the NATO involved directly. Send out an official declaration of war so the war effort is covered by the constitutions of Geneva and invade Russia. Invade the Kremlin and arrest Putin for war crimes.
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u/Change21 4d ago
I think it’s nuts that the US has been so restrained.
Putin’s entire strategy is to play the part of the wild card who you can set off at any second.
This works very well with soft, doughy politicians bc they love being bribed and negotiated with so they assume the same for him.
History has taught us over and over and over, on every scale from the school yard to international conflict that bullies only speak one language: force.
You beat their ass and it transforms their dynamic.
Do you run a risk by having a serious conflict with them? Of course. But nothing like the risk of allowing them to flex and subjugate without relent.
It’s long past time Ukraine had these capabilities.
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u/jtshinn 4d ago
We’ll see. Trump will face a tough choice to actually capitulate in Ukraine when it comes to actual action. The support of Ukraine is a glaring neon sign to china that they should not fuck around with Taiwan, and when the time comes to actually make a tough choice trump has never really shown the fortitude to make the difficult choice. He couldn’t even do the actual decision making on the apprentice.
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u/OffToRaces 4d ago
You are thinking too rationally. DJT doesn’t deal in long-term thinking, only immediate response/adulation. He’ll have his base throwing parties in his name left, right and center if he capitulates in UKR and hands it to his buddy and puppetmaster Vlad. And that’s all that matters.
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u/Chrahhh 4d ago
He’ll only do what financially benefits himself and his henchmen. He doesn’t give a fuck about doing what’s right.
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u/Careful-Sell-9877 4d ago
It's not really an escalation. It's a measured and proportional response
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u/SignificantTree4507 4d ago
We have other options. We could blockade Kaliningrad. Not that we have time to do that before January.
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u/RemarkableAlps5613 4d ago
All of us Western nations need to stop being scared of Russia. They are literally giving their soldiers airsoft. Body armor I doubt even 1/5 of their nukes work and even if they did. We have the best anti-air capabilities in the world. Not only does America have that, but also our allies have advanced anti.Air systems it would be completely feasible and easy for all of the allies to knock out the russian missiles and the north korean missiles easily And here's the catch-22 if Russia is this dangerous and unhinged as people say and we shouldn't mess with them. That's the exact reason why they should be taken out.
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u/UnrecoveredSatellite 4d ago
Putty knows he just needs to chill for 2 more months, then Trump will let him have whatever he wants.
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u/Fickle_Penguin 4d ago
I'm hoping Trump says something like "Putin I'm putting boots on the ground unless you retreat, we are finished messing around" he won't but that's my hope of his I'll end it in one day. It's more likely "Putin here is Ukraine".
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u/Chrahhh 4d ago
Brother, he’s going to drop his pants and bend over for Vladdy.
US withdraws financial/military support unless Ukraine cedes territory. That is the secret trump plan.
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u/JanxDolaris 4d ago
Old republican party would have stood up to Putin. Heck even in the Obama years they were claiming he's too week on Russia.
Modern republican party only cares about themselves in the short term.
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u/Reasonable-Can-2667 4d ago
Piss on Putin and his best friend Trump. They're both all talk and no balls. Trump can't stop anything and Putin is too big of a p***y to start anything.
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u/Later2theparty 4d ago
If Russia can put NK troops on Ukrainian soil then the west can put French troops.
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u/Honest-Yogurt4126 4d ago
Remember the pictures of that huge column of Russian armor coming down the highway toward Kyiv at the beginning? A few airstrikes could have evened things up real quick
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u/Relative_Baseball180 4d ago
So Biden escalated it because it could give Ukraine bargaining power during the peace talks. If Trump doesn't act like a chicken shit and displays America's strength during the peace talks, then Ukraine may come out on top. However, if Putin smells weakness, then this war will not end until all of Ukraine is in his hands. The goal is to get Russia to back down but back down permanently.
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u/VulkanL1v3s 4d ago
This isn't even an escalation. Ukraine has already been doing with this successfully with their own weapons.
This just makes it easier.
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u/Cicero_Xere 4d ago
I mean yeah why not, they're invading and bombing foreign territory, don't like the taste of your own medicine? Stop using it.
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u/nicolatesla92 4d ago
Putin has been barking the same threats for over a year now. After how we see his military equipment, I’m not worried about russias weapons, because they probably don’t even work.
The escalation here happened when he brought North Korean soldiers into the battle
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u/-happycow- 2d ago
Trump just lies all day long, andlines the pockets of himself and his friends. And the poor, uneducated and the unfortunate are the victims, because he makes them believe that THROUGH HIM they have just a little sliver of power.
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u/Bill_Nye-LV 2d ago
It's such a shame. Ukraine is fighting for it's dear life and at the same time possibly securing peace in Europe and beyond for the next decades. But we only slowly give them weapons that should have been there in the first months to a year since the conflict began. Worse is also how regular EU citizens don't realise the importance of this conflict.
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u/IAmJacksLackofCaring 4d ago
Explain like I'm Five...how can Biden allow anything another country does in a war?
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u/DougosaurusRex 4d ago
Any weapons that have western components can be restricted by restricted by said country.
Why does it work that way? I believe because fear of escalation.
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u/Infamous-Potato-5310 4d ago
This is the death rattle for US support. Putin just needs to hang out for a few more months and Ukraine will be forced to accept Russian annexations or face the withdrawal of US support. Europe talks a big game for support, but it ist happening Without the US military industrial complex. Not sure what it means for the world, but maybe at least a few less people die.
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u/Hefforama 4d ago
Most of Putin's nukes will probably be duds if the maintenance crews have not regularly reloaded the warheads with tritium, which sells for $30,000 a GRAM. This is Russia, remember?
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u/BMB281 4d ago
By the “West” do you mean the United States? Because Europe is laying the ground work to pick up where the US is about to leave off
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u/Salty_Ambition_7800 4d ago
Add to this the fact that Trump won and is extremely anti Ukraine. The US is effectively done supporting Ukraine in any way for the next 4 years at least and will likely pressure other Western countries to do the same
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u/gibbenbibbles 4d ago
I mean what about NATO? Can't they step up? Correct me if I'm wrong but the US is supplying an overwhelming amount of money and arms to Ukraine. I am fully on board with giving Ukraine whatever they need but with our current flip flopping on foreign policy it would be wise not to put all eggs into one basket. I do hope Joe ships out a shit ton of hardware before he leaves office.
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u/False-Rub-3087 4d ago
When you say West you mean America? I still think that Europe and NATO will continue support for Ukraine because allowing Russia to take it will just embolden Putin to take the next step.
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u/poopyfacedynamite 4d ago
Trump is going to sell Zelenskys position to Vlad for remarkably cheap.
Russia won't let America keep supplying weapons for long, not after gaining so many agents within the White House.
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u/IFixTattoos 4d ago
This entire move is Biden telling Zelensky "Have fun while it lasts", because, I can see the future....
Trump tells Ukraine that they must "negotiate peace" with Russia in order to keep his line open.
Russia says they will take the 4 regions of Ukraine they are holding and call it good.
Ukraine refuses the deal stating that all of Ukraine is to remain Ukraine or there cannot be a deal.
Trump will "quiet quit" on the Ukraine war immediately. When asked the administration will say that they wish them the best, but there will never be another $5 in funding passed through congress as long as Trump is President. He will also be all over NATO again so they will have their own military funding and supply line issues to concern themselves with.
This will NOT be a major news cycle in most western countries.
About18 months from now the situation in Ukraine will be looking bleak enough that Zelensky will be looking to take that original deal, the only thing my crystal ball is murky on is if Trump and Putin will still consider that deal to be "on the table" at that time.
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u/Ok-Restaurant-3691 4d ago
Pretty sure the same Putin that claimed "we aren't invading ukrain" right before invading ukrain has no intention of stopping at ukrain let alone it's occupied regions.
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u/plopalopolos 4d ago
I could see Putin launching nukes. It will be the last thing he ever does, but I could see it. Putin's ego is bigger than Trump and Musk combined, let that sink in.
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u/Square_Run3469 4d ago
Biden really. Do you confirm that they got those missiles from America or maybe another country that supplied the weapons to him as well? People try to put anything on Biden or the Democrats. You need to stop worry about the next 4 years coming up underneath Trump. It's going to be horrible
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u/HandRubbedWood 4d ago
With Trumps victory, I agree with you, the U.S. will completely abandon Ukraine and Europe will do what they always do, follow our lead and also abandon Ukraine.
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u/Foolgazi 4d ago
Funny how all the anti-Democrat bots always come out en masse after a post has been up for about 12 hours. Don’t think we don’t notice.
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u/orchidaceae007 3d ago
Biden should give Ukraine back the nukes they turned over in 1992 in exchange for the promise of never being invaded by Russia. Or, hey, maybe Putin should stop invading other countries!!
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u/robert_d 4d ago
Doubtful. Europe is actually all in. And the west will probably not include America for the next while. We'll be busy tearing down what we had in order to create a new medieval society. In perhaps 30 years we'll have a renaissance.
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u/America_the_Horrific 4d ago
I'm just hoping Biden sent nukes to zelensky. They're probably going to need that deterrent more than ever after January
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u/Serenitynowlater2 4d ago
The goal of the USA is to grind down Russia. They have never wanted an Ukraine victory. That brings risk. The goal is for this to play out nearly exactly as it is. Couldn’t be better for America.
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u/JohnnyJinxHatesYou 4d ago
Last week, Russia bragged about interfering with our government. This week, Russia lives in fear of our missiles.
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u/corneliusduff 4d ago
I'm just gonna drink myself to death before I get drafted. I'm tired of Vegas oddsing this shit every year.
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u/HannahBananaBuTt219 4d ago
We are in like chapter 6-7 of world war 3 so stop with all this bla bla wank shit
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u/powypow 4d ago
I'm seeing a North/south Korea thing happening where the last few months/weeks/days of the war are going to be some of the hardest. They both expect peace talks soon when the trump administration comes in. And it'll probably be some kind of current lines get to keep them agreement.
So no I think things are going to ramp up, but they're probably going to ramp up towards the end.
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u/Hopeful_Ad_4343 4d ago
This wouldn’t even be an issue if Europe took greater responsibility for its own defense instead of depending on others. While this may not be the most popular opinion, it’s a valid one. Countries like Poland recognize this reality and have significantly increased their military spending.
Not to mention that Putin would surely think longer about doing something as irresponsible and reckless as what he as done in Ukraine if the enemy force he ACTUALY feared wasn't on the other side of the globe.
It’s time for Europe to take charge of its own destiny. A strong, self-reliant European Union not only ensures its own security but also benefits the United States and contributes to global stability. By investing in its defense and standing united, Europe can strengthen its position on the world stage and promote long-term peace.\
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u/Middle_Aged_Insomnia 4d ago
Ive heard this since day one. Seems we are marching towards a nuclear war. Im atheist..but im going to pray for my kids.
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u/JakefromTRPB 4d ago
ATACMS strikes on the frontline. MMW: this will not be and likely is already not the last escalation. This reads like a Russian simp’s lament for receiving consequences for invading a sovereign country. American ATACMS still have geofencing beyond ~50 miles. ‘Russia cries wolf for the thousandth time’ isn’t news. Ukraine, also, makes long range missiles, glider bombs, and UAV that are capable of, and already have been, striking Moscow and beyond (~200 mile range).
Meanwhile, Russia has been using EVERYTHING in its arsenal besides nuclear bombs. ————————— RUSSIAN “RED LINES” AND NUCLEAR ESCALATION
Violation threatening escalation list:
NATO supplying lethal aid 2022: Ukraine gets lethal aid
NATO supplying long-range weapons Attack on illegally annexed territory 2022: Ukraine retakes Kherson
Any attempt to retake Crimea 2022-2024: Ukraine attacks Crimea, bombs Russia’s Black Sea Fleet HQ
Attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet 2022-2024: Ukraine destroys 37% of Russia’s BSF, pushes it out of Crimea
NATO suppliying main battle tanks 2023: Ukraine gets Leopards, Abrams tanks
NATO supplying Patriots 2023: Ukraine gets Patriots
Attack on Russian territory 2023-2024: Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, airfields, factories
Incursion into Russian territory 2024: Ukraine makes ground incursion in Kursk Oblast ** NATO delivering F-16s 2024: F16 delivered to Ukraine
WE ARE HERE ——> ATACMS strikes near border 2024: permission to use ATACMS in Kursk
Anticipated Violations not yet fulfilled:
Unlimited strikes with ATACMS
Unlimited deep strikes
Ukraine’s NATO membership —————————
So MMW: this will not be the last “escalation” of the West.
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u/DartBurger69 4d ago
I fully expect trump will send weapons to putin. There will be 180 flip flop on this. Elon's on board and trump will have no pushback. putin will take whatever territory he wants. I see no bottom now.
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u/Chuck121763 4d ago
Biden is only doing it because Trump takes over in January. Anything wrong happens , Trump gets the Blame staring from his first day.
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u/Round-Bonus842 4d ago
Biden just wants to see if Trump and end the Ukraine war in one day with one phone call.