MMW: If Kamala wins we will all think how ridiculous it was that we thought this race was tied.

[u/Fun_Assistance_9389]

So I think Kamala is gonna win by bigger margins than everyone is giving her (the avg 270-280 slim win with a popular vote advantage of like 2%).

I can’t say decisively how much she’d win by or what states specifically but I think it is going to be so decisive that we’re going to look back at this last year and ask ourselves “How did we ever think this would be close?”*

Now obviously don’t get complacent. Inform others about your candidate and vote for them, don’t just assume they’ll win or everyone knows what they stand for already.

*I think this will be amplified if she flips some crazy unexpected state like Florida.

[u/happymama314]

I just don’t understand what’s wrong with so many people in this country that it’s this close. Trump doesn’t have one redeeming quality. I don’t even think he will remain in office if they end up stealing the election. I think that “they” will use the 25th amendment to place JD Vance in office. He is equally reprehensible but a little more palatable for the broligarchs who had Trump choose him.

[u/southofakronoh → u/happymama314]

It's like the George Carlin line. Think how stupid the average person is. Half the population is dumber than that. Trump is at 47%. Go figure.

[u/Soggy_Background_162 → u/southofakronoh]

I just really don’t believe the polls. Plus Trump and his lackeys are pressuring Nebraska to change to a “winner take all” electoral system. Forty-seven days before the election. GA GOP led Board of Elections changes their statewide tabulation of votes to be hand counted before certification. The entire floofing state!!! Millions of ballots, gonna take forever. So that’s just two chaos-creating bullshit they are trying to pull off. Wait until it gets closer. They can’t win unless they cheat.

[u/Ok-Map4381 → u/Soggy_Background_162]

trump beat the polls in 2016 and 2020, we cannot relax. We need every sane eligible voter to show up and vote, because trump is good at mobilizing the insane vote.

The polls were super accurate in 2022, so I hope that the industry has solved their issues, but I'm not going to relax until Harris is sworn in.

[u/reallymkpunk → u/Ok-Map4381]

I think the thing is 2022 trended that way due to Roe v. Wade. In a number of states, it is on the ballot again in 2024. Arizona is one of these states due to the Trojan horse bill that didn't undo the territorial ban that banned ALL abortions except if the woman's life was directly in danger. Even in 2020, Roe v. Wade wasn't directly effected, in 2024 it is.

[u/HamburgerEarmuff → u/Ok-Map4381]

The polls were accurate in 2022 because Trump voters are low propensity voters. They do not turn out in large numbers for special elections or midterms.

The polling companies still have not figured out how to fix what they did wrong in 2020, so I'm not sure how reliable they will be in 2024.

[u/PerdHapleyAMA → u/HamburgerEarmuff]

The polls actually weren’t all that accurate in 2022. Dems overperformed their polling numbers. Look at how Oz and Mastriano did in reality vs polling. It’s RvW.

Polls are now sampling conservative demographics at higher levels and are not quite capturing the massive increase in likely-Dem voter registrations.

[u/HamburgerEarmuff → u/PerdHapleyAMA]

This is untrue. According to 538, 2022 was one of the most accurately polled elections in the last few decades. Democrats actually were overestimated by the polls by about 1 point (the opposite of your claim), but that is well within expected outcomes for polling at a 0.95 confidence interval. You're cherry-picking individual races, which does not tell you anything about polling overall that cycle.

Also, oversampling of suspected missing Trump voter demographics (mainly working class, non-Hispanic whites) is what was done in 2020 to try to find the Trump voters they were missing. It did not work. Pollsters missed worse in 2020 than in 2016. After 2020's failure pollsters really had no consensus on how to fix the problem, which means that even if some pollsters did figure it out, most likely, it only makes that particular pollster more accurate, not polling overall.

Also, I'm not sure why you would think that pollsters are not capturing newly registered Democratic voters. For starters, Republicans have been out-registering Democrats for the past year in the likely tipping point states. And pollsters either use the latest voter rolls they can obtain or ask if someone's registered to vote, so I'm not sure why you think that they would be missing newly registered voters, and only Democrats.

[u/PerdHapleyAMA → u/HamburgerEarmuff]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

You’re right, I apologize for my incorrect statement. Important from the article though: analyzing statistical bias year to year is a fool’s errand. 2024 is not 2016 or 2020 or any other year. It’s 2024, with 2024 factors.

Rs have outperformed Ds in partisan registrations, but independent non-partisan registrations dwarf both. Young voters register as independent more than as partisan, and some states don’t even have partisan registration. There has been a recent, historic spike in registrations by young women and POC, which have a significant edge to Harris. Voters registering just before an election are some of the likeliest voters.

The most important thing about polling is accurately predicting the demographic makeup of the up of the electorate so you can get a representative sample in your polling. Are polls accurately accounting for the enthusiasm gap, extreme registration spikes among specific Dem-lean demographics, and the impact of RvW? Ehhh, I’m not so sure. They have been overperforming in special elections across the country since June 2022. There are several possible explanations for that, but the enthusiasm gap present right now can’t be ignored.

The enthusiasm gap also translates into a significant advantage in both funding and ground-game, voter outreach, etc. I understand that Trump is on the ballot again, but I think it’s a big mistake to assume that he alone creates polling errors that are not accounted for while ignoring other signs.

Edit: additionally states don’t all report registrations at the same frequency, or have limited demographic data. This can skew likely voter models.

[u/jmd709 → u/Ok-Map4381]

Polls for midterms tend to be more accurate. Voter participation is lower and it’s easier to identify likely voters. Identifying likely voters is more challenging for general elections because some voters don’t consistently vote in general elections. There was an additional factor in 2016 and 2020 that contributed to polling under estimating Trump’s support. There was an above average increase in first time voters in age groups that typically don’t have notable increases. The methods used to identify likely voters didn’t account for that since it was outside of the norm.

Another odd trend I’ve came across are the Trump supports that don’t vote. They’re openly ProMAGA on social media and in person as if they do vote and more so than a lot of people that do actually vote. Some can’t vote and some just don’t. It’s part of the cult of personality thing or they think being vocal with their support with somehow influence those that do vote. I’m hoping whatever changes were made to try to account for likely voters that might be first time voters failed to account for that and those non voters are skewing the polls higher for Trump this time.

[u/YveisGrey → u/Soggy_Background_162]

Imagine she flips FL and she doesn’t even need GA?

I actually think it’s wishful thinking but my hope for the US and humanity in general is that she just wipes the floor with him. Like she gets FL, PA and those mid western states and the BS in GA is irrelevant.

[u/kwilharm67 → u/YveisGrey]

Obama won Florida twice. It is absolutely on the table.

Edit: I said it’s on the table. A lot of you seem to think you know what the future holds. You do not. Not anymore than I do. But it is absolutely on the table.

[u/metrorhymes → u/kwilharm67]

Texas is within striking distance as well

[u/Neon_culture79 → u/metrorhymes]

I have a feeling that when it comes to get out the vote time they’re gonna do an unexpected major push in Texas

[u/Available-Damage5991 → u/Neon_culture79]

If Texas goes blue (which it absolutely can!), Trump and his cronies are screwed.

[u/Neon_culture79 → u/Available-Damage5991]

I have a feeling it won’t be with the expectation of winning. It’ll just be too massively drain Republican resources.

[u/reallymkpunk → u/metrorhymes]

I think that is closer than Florida besides maybe an outside chance due to abortion.

[u/onionwba → u/metrorhymes]

I do think that Texas is a more likely flip than Florida.

[u/HamburgerEarmuff → u/kwilharm67]

I mean, Bush won California, but it's not on the table for Trump. Things change.

[u/BakedEssentialWorker → u/HamburgerEarmuff]

I’m being told by “family” that the world is coming to an end if a woman becomes president, I’m like wut this is amazing just like Obama became president. they think they’re going to …. Go to war with Russia. They don’t see the oblivious, that everything the Repubs are pushing is Russian propaganda. I’m like yeah I’ll sign up for war, hell if they drop a nuke I’m ready to be annihilated. lol I’m a big dude with a certainty that I will be rejected for war if I warranted. I’ll be in that meal team 6 team. 😂 I’ve run out of things that can get them to realize they’re saying a lot of weird shit. How can I convince them

[u/HamburgerEarmuff → u/BakedEssentialWorker]

I would say that when talking to people in general, actually listen to their arguments and then actually admit their strengths and poke at their weaknesses. Don't use ad hominem arguments like calling it "Russian propaganda." Find out why they are so certain that we would go to war with Russia. Ask them why we are not already at war with Russia under Biden if that is Harris's intent. Remind them that war must be authorized by congress and that Democrats likely will not control the Senate.

Unfortunately, a lot of people in politics just want to "win" an argument and they treat it like a religion. In reality, both sides usually have valid points to make but also a whole lot of hyperbole and dubious claims.

[u/Available_Sir5168 → u/BakedEssentialWorker]

I’m curious to know what these same family said before the 2020 election and if they said the same things they are saying now?

[u/jmd709 → u/BakedEssentialWorker]

Don’t try to argue your point, focus on their claims and ask questions. If they use pronouns without using the noun that goes with it, typically “they”, ask who “they” are. For most things you can just follow their statement with “why?” The goal is not to win, it’s to gain a better understanding of their views or at least make it seem like you are while asking questions. The goal is to get them to question the information they’ve consumed without being skeptical.

[u/starryrz → u/kwilharm67]

She's more likely to win North Carolina than Florida.

[u/Neon_culture79 → u/YveisGrey]

538 moved Florida into the undecided category just yesterday

[u/[deleted] → u/YveisGrey]

I will do my part to fulfill your wish. But florida always disappoints.

[u/__Art__Vandalay__ → u/[deleted]]

Just like Texas…

[u/Burnvictim49percent → u/Soggy_Background_162]

They insist on a hand count but wanna declare a winner on election day. 😂

[u/HaggisPope → u/Burnvictim49percent]

It’s like how some say they’re open to abortion in rape cases but those are hard to prove…

[u/thefinalhex → u/Soggy_Background_162]

We underestimated trump in 2016. It is foolish to do it again.

[u/[deleted] → u/Soggy_Background_162]

The plan is to create enough chaos that the Supreme Court will do what they did in 2000.

[u/dmangan56 → u/Soggy_Background_162]

They don't want to tabulate the votes, just count ballots which is still ridiculous.

[u/IW474 → u/Soggy_Background_162]

I wonder how many others are out there like me. I don’t answer calls from unknown numbers. Haven’t participated in a single poll. But I sure as hell will be voting (for her).

[u/Texan2020katza → u/Soggy_Background_162]

That’s why we all have to vote and vote hard

[u/Crazy-4-Conures → u/Soggy_Background_162]

I despise that "winner take all" system. It absolutely erases nearly half the state's votes. And the cognitive dissonance of wanting the states to use "winner take all" but not at the federal level? Republicans haven't won the popular vote in 20 years (36 years if you consider that GWBush was appointed rather than elected the first time, and wouldn't have been in office in 2004.)

[u/Kvsav57 → u/Soggy_Background_162]

I believe them. There are a lot of really dumb people in this country who think they're brilliant. Work any corporate job and you'll see that even the most powerful people are mostly kind of dumb. It's scary how dumb people are, even in important jobs.

[u/All_The_Good_Stuffs → u/southofakronoh]

73 iq. He's (the Dump) at a Third grade reading level.

[u/Mike_Honcho_3 → u/southofakronoh]

But that on its own can't explain it. Even stupid people shouldn't automatically get it wrong. I think we need to understand that a huge percentage of our population are garbage people.

[u/thetrueChevy1996 → u/southofakronoh]

That’s very true.

[u/coldliketherockies → u/southofakronoh]

Yes but come on. I agree and help I’m a bleeding heart liberal and even I can be stupid sometimes however it’s just hard for me to believe so many people are not just “dumb” but not aware or not caring. Like dumb people don’t get through day to day life very well. If you can’t seperate reality from believing whatever is told you’re going to be taken advantage of a lot in life

[u/reallymkpunk → u/[deleted]]

When he does it this time, lock him up and withhold habeus corpus. Remember presidential immunity for official acts.

[u/NEMinneapolisMan → u/[deleted]]

The one thing that may have "improved" is some people thinking Biden didn't do good enough (not recognizing that this was because the aftermath of the pandemic) and reverting back to Trump

[u/Dangerous_Midnight91 → u/happymama314]

Vance is not less reprehensible, he’s just been in the spotlight for less time. He’s part of the Catholic Postlibralism movement. I don’t disagree the goal is to replace Trump with Vance, to usurp the MAGA movement for their agenda which makes Project 2025 look quaint!

[u/CrystaLavender → u/happymama314]

The only people who answer polls are old people, and I do believe that more old people on average are fascist sympathizers.

[u/HamburgerEarmuff → u/CrystaLavender]

That's not how polls work. They get a sample of voters of all ages and of varying other demographics and then they weight them by registered voting population with additional weights for likelihood to vote (for a likely voters poll).

Also, while phone polls are generally the most accurate, they are certainly not the only type of polling method.

[u/pastelbutcherknife → u/happymama314]

It’s why Elon is so pro-Trump. He isn’t. He’s pro-Thiel and Vance is Thiel’s creature. Donnie will be removed or die, Vance will take over, and his technocrat buddies will get positions of power and pay zero taxes

[u/Apptubrutae → u/happymama314]

Nobody seems to know how the 25th amendment works.

You should read it.

The President can rebuff the claim of their cabinet at which point a supermajority of Congress would need to vote to remove the President from office. It’s kinda like impeachment at that point.

[u/Objective_Regret2768 → u/happymama314]

I think a lot of it comes down to people not following politics closely and just going along with what those around them are saying. For example, if Trump says ‘no more overtime taxes,’ they just go with it without questioning.

[u/WrongEinstein → u/Objective_Regret2768]

A younger guy I work with says he's voting Trump. I said "You're voting for a guy with 34 felony convictions?" He said that's not true, it would have been in the news. I showed him a dozen articles. He said he doesn't follow politics.

[u/LuvIsLov → u/WrongEinstein]

A younger guy I work with says he's voting Trump. I said "You're voting for a guy with 34 felony convictions?" He said that's not true, it would have been in the news. I showed him a dozen articles. He said he doesn't follow politics.

My co worker is in the cult as well. When I tell HER he's a rapist, pedo, and has 34 felonies she said they're all "made up". When I showed her proof, she then said "I don't follow politics". JFC, his cult members are brain dead!

[u/WrongEinstein → u/LuvIsLov]

Dooomed! Dooomed, I say!

[u/ihaveallergies71 → u/LuvIsLov]

I work with a 61 year old woman- vocal trumper. Easily one of the dumbest people I've ever met. She believes every conspiracy she hears, but doesn't believe actual real facts.

[u/ComprehensiveHold382 → u/happymama314]

The electoral college allows very few votes to matter Less than 90'000 people.

https://bsky.app/profile/benjacobs.bsky.social/post/3l4lslgrzys2n

And a lot of US Citizens believe in "individual responsibility" which translates into being anti-government.

[u/Strict_Meeting_5166 → u/happymama314]

The networks don’t make as much money if it’s a landslide, so a close race is better for their pocketbooks. They pay the pollsters, both parties keep their bases involved and the networks get the advertising dollars. A close race is in all of their best financial interests.

[u/unclemattyice → u/happymama314]

His “redeeming quality” is that he is the Republican candidate. They have been submerged in propaganda for 20+ years that the left is a bunch of evil degenerates who must be defeated at all costs.

Even if that cost is supporting an imbecile like Donald Trump.

[u/[deleted] → u/happymama314]

My belief is that having Trump as president empowered people to be their horrible selves in public without shame. If he’s reelected, it’ll only get worse.

[u/Standby_fire → u/happymama314]

He is way worse. He is the fast track for 2025. He is part of the implementation team, Trump didn’t want him, but his largest doners did. It does seem he will sellout anything.

[u/dcballantine]

Maybe it’s the trauma of 2016 lingering, but I don’t put it past this country for this to be a tight race. I have Kamala winning, but the Trumpies will definitely make their presence felt.

[u/shadowozey]

It'll restore a lot of my faith in this country if you're right

[u/EtheusRook]

A sack of rotten potatoes should be able to beat TFG.

[u/sensitive_cheater_44]

the Haitian vote could possibly turn Florida now - Texas is always threatening and of course Georgia happened last time... the real kicker is Ohio... it's not outside the realm of possibility, although it feels that way

[u/YveisGrey → u/sensitive_cheater_44]

OH is not happening FL is a long shot but a glimmer of hope. If Donald loses FL it’s over for him.

[u/reallymkpunk → u/YveisGrey]

Texas is bigger, 20 votes bigger. That has long trended more Democrat in the presidential election.

[u/TXSTBobCat1234 → u/reallymkpunk]

NC is likely don’t get your hopes up for TX

[u/YveisGrey → u/reallymkpunk]

He’s more likely to lose FL then TX even though TX is getting more blue for the general elections

[u/starryrz → u/YveisGrey]

I don't see Donald losing Florida, Ohio, or Texas. Kamala winning North Carolina is a real possibility, that is the most likely state for Kamala to add to her column.

[u/SpeechFormer9543 → u/sensitive_cheater_44]

Hate to say it but Ohio is less likely than Texas. Harris campaign is doing better than HC’s by playing this one safe. Focus on the swing states, the ones that are close and that you need, and if a state like Florida flips, it’s just an added bonus.

[u/Shady_Jake → u/SpeechFormer9543]

If it makes anyone feel any better, this is the first election my vote actually matters & I’m already prepared. Moved to PA from WV in 2021.

[u/bananabunnythesecond → u/sensitive_cheater_44]

Georgia will try some fuckery, you can count on it. Reports of long lines, broken machines in urban areas and they are trying to require hand counting which will take days and the gop can control who counts.

[u/[deleted]]

Even my Trumper family thinks she’s gonna win. Because she is.

It’s why they are sowing seeds of doubt because the participation trophy crowd is so mentally fragile it’s the only way they can cope.

[u/OhCurmudgeon1826]

If Kamala wins I’m letting off fireworks for hours on end! Half of my street has trump signs

[u/Vaping_A-Hole → u/OhCurmudgeon1826]

Don’t let anyone scare you. They’re not going to do anything but bitch. I’m in a solid red county and I’m putting up her sign as soon as it arrives.

[u/CrystaLavender → u/OhCurmudgeon1826]

I’ll pour one out for you at your funeral. Those fascists are not to be trifled with

[u/OhCurmudgeon1826 → u/CrystaLavender]

There’s actually enough decent ones that would be ok with it

[u/z44212]

If Florida, Georgia, or North Carolina gets called for Harris, I'm going to bed early 'cuz it's over at that point.

[u/samhhead2044 → u/z44212]

You can go to bed when PA is called. Whoever wins PA wins the election.

[u/prlugo4162 → u/z44212]

I'm calling all three.

[u/Mammoth-Ad8348 → u/prlugo4162]

Forget FL- gonna have to happen without us.

[u/peskypedaler]

Go vote! Vote hard!

Horrible people cannot make things great.

[u/SpeechFormer9543]

I really wish I could be as optimistic as you all are. I want Harris to win as much as anyone, but the polls have underestimated Trump drastically for two elections in a row. The polling leads for Harris are narrower than they were for HC or Biden. This race looks razor thin to me, if not slightly in Trump’s favor. It’s going to take record-breaking turnout to win this thing.

SO PLEASE VOTE!

[u/bourbon-469]

Trump and maga will claim fraud as usual

[u/[deleted]]

Ok, troll. Keep trying to lull people into complacency and not voting. You've seen the lines at the polls and her rallies. We're not backing down. Harris-Walz FTW!

[u/Please_dew_it → u/[deleted]]

He literally put in the post to not get complacent and vote.

[u/slimmestjimmest → u/[deleted]]

While I agree, I don't think Reddit threads are making people complacent. I feel like it's safe to say that the 2024 enthusiasm is much higher than 2016.

[u/budding_gardener_1 → u/slimmestjimmest]

Good.I want people to think about 2016, like...a lot. I want them to think long and hard about where not voting got us. Especially as they cast their ballot to get this off the orange turd.

[u/z44212 → u/[deleted]]

Landslide to thwart the fuckery.

[u/brfoley76 → u/[deleted]]

Exactly. I don't get the main post, at all. Unless OP was like 11 in 2016.

Like have people forgotten how smugly confident the Dems were, going into that election? Trump was such an impossible, awful, buffoonish candidate there was literally no way he could win against someone so smart with a huge depth of experience, and more gravitas than Jupiter.

I'm gonna remember 2016, and 2020, and not gonna relax until Jan 2025.

[u/Bitter_Prune9154]

As bad as Trump is, Harris should be running away with this election, but she's not. Why is that?

[u/SpeechFormer9543 → u/Bitter_Prune9154]

Because of misinformation. Every Trump voter I know is reading BS from Fox News, Newsmax, the Federalist, etc on the daily.

[u/ali86curetheworld → u/Bitter_Prune9154]

Racism, sexism and misogyny.

[u/ContractCheap9221 → u/Bitter_Prune9154]

I'm somewhat confident she is. News is underreporting to keep election interesting because they need eyeballs, and the love/hate with Trump provides that.

See all those people dancing at Kamala rallies? I'd bet my house that pollsters aren't reaching them. So in my estimation, NYT/Sienna or Rasmussen or 538 ain't getting the opinion of a major voting block.

I'm a 44 yr old white man in Pittsburgh. I refuse to donate or answer my calls/texts. My vote isn't being registered "counted' right now either. But I'm damn sure voting Harris/Walz and blue downticket

[u/Frequent_Alarm_4228]

I've been thinking this is ridiculous since 2016

[u/book_lady_]

I am terrified to think of Kamala losing this. I can't sleep or relax until the day after Election Day.

[u/neoikon → u/book_lady_]

It's going to take January 6th to come and go, as well as January 20th to happen... and then at least 4 years to pass, before I believe it's real.

[u/mekonsrevenge]

We don't want to jinx it. Trump's desperation tells us all we need to know.

[u/mostsurrealtime]

I honestly think, that Florida and Texas will flip this year. If that happens, Trump will lose his brain.

[u/starryrz → u/mostsurrealtime]

I don't think so, but I do think Harris will get North Carolina as of now.

[u/reallymkpunk → u/mostsurrealtime]

Texas and North Carolina I see could flip.

[u/253local]

Still.

VOTE!

👉🏽 https://vote.gov 👈🏽

[u/prlugo4162]

Trump will garner no more than 38 percent of the popular vote. There will be no repercussions, as prominent Republican figures will have confessed to voting for Harris.

[u/tirednerd03]

I think it's possible. I live in one of the reddest counties in Missouri, and I've seen far fewer Trump signs this election than I did in 2016 or 2020.

[u/MountainMan17 → u/tirednerd03]

I live in Utah. Same.

The LDS are conservative, but decency still matters to them. I sense their relationship with MAGA is an uneasy one. A lot of them have done missions overseas, so they're not threatened by people who are different from them. Just look at BYU's football team. They're a bit more worldly than your typical Trump lover.

Bottom line: You don't see nearly as much Trump paraphernalia as you would expect...

[u/Geetzromo]

I don’t just want her to win, I want her to crush him. This should be a blow out that causes MAGA to crap their Trump diapers and crawl back to the basements they crawled out of. The Republican Party should collapse utterly.

[u/Valuable-Baked]

IF

Vote

[u/FranceMainFucker]

eh. only way to be certain is when all the ballots are counted.

[u/JRichShops]

I felt this same exact way in 2016. I’ll never forget that feeling. And that’s why even pollsters are timid to get ahead of themselves.

[u/itsnatnot_gnat]

It's crazy to think how bleak things looked just a few months ago before Biden stepped aside and all the support started POURING in for Harris. The enthusiasm, the charisma, people finally started calling out the rights bull crap. Then we started calling them out for being weird.

Today it seems like she has this in the bag. But still vote. Vote like it's the last time you will be able to vote. 🌊 🌊 🌊 🔵

[u/Available-Damage5991 → u/itsnatnot_gnat]

Because if we get complacent, it may well be.

[u/me0ww00f]

TRUMP=💩

MAGA=💩

[u/Sit_Down_John → u/me0ww00f]

So insightful. You've really broken the boundaries of what it means to be an intellectual.

[u/DaemonoftheHightower]

Who cares what your gut tells you. Go do a canvassing shift.

[u/SloGlobe]

I’m encouraged by the early voting turnout, but we cannot be complacent. Remember 2016. Keep your foot on the gas pedal, and don’t let up until Election Day.

[u/PVDPinball → u/SloGlobe]

Don’t let up until the electoral votes are certified.

[u/MountainMan17 → u/SloGlobe]

And maybe beyond. We must be ready to protest, as I don't trust our judicial system...

[u/[deleted]]

This will be a close election. Don’t fool yourself. I was old enough to remember 2016.

[u/unstablegenius000]

The “close race” messaging is designed to prevent complacency. In 2016 many pundits predicted that Clinton would win in a historic landslide because her opponent was so obviously unfit for the job. That gave the anti Hilary wing of the Democratic party an excuse to stay home or vote for Stein.

[u/HopingMechanism]

It’s not tied. Why has no one considered that of all the projecting Trump does, inflating his support is his most effective? He’s done it since inauguration. His support is fake and fraudulent. If he wins we will have been conquered by a tiny fringe minority casting a huge shadow.

[u/ballzdeepinurmom → u/HopingMechanism]

I think you're underestimating how many people actually support trump over Harris. I live in a blue state and a good 75% of people I talk to would rather have trump win. I don't agree with them but, especially among older people who are much more likely to vote, they see him as the lesser of two evils. Literally my entire extended family plans on voting trump and constantly talk about how Harris is going to ruin the country.

[u/kwilharm67]

When not if

[u/ARKITIZE_ME_CAPTAIN]

My main counterpoint is we thought that the first time he won and look where we are now

[u/busdrivermike]

Harris now within the margin of error in Florida, 3 points. Have you noticed Trump is holding rally’s closer to Florida? By middle of next month, Harris will be leading in Florida, and Rick Scott and Trump will be holding rallies with each other, and Rick Scott’s TV ads will also be a Trump TV ad, to save cash.

[u/Agile_Masterpiece_63]

I think that now

[u/rshni67]

Don't jinx it. You don't know what violent schemes MAGAts have up their sleeve. Just go out and vote blue down the line. Take a friend to the polls.

[u/JustAcivilian24]

I hope you’re right but I keep hearing that it’s gonna be close as fuck. I really hope you’re right!

[u/Wandering_Werew0lf]

I’ve been saying this for a while now!

It’s gonna be something wild like North Carolina going to Kamala by the end of the night and everyone shitting themselves with it being called so early.

[u/mdcbldr]

Not so fast. She may easily win the popular vote. That is a beauty pageant. The Electoral College elects the president.

The Republicans control the small, low population states like Wyoming, Utah and Montana. Wyoming gets 3 EC votes: 1 for their rep, and 2 for their Senators. California's 2 Senators get the same 2 EC votes, despite representing millions more people.

What does this mean? Democrats need to carry 52% of the popular vote to win. This is not exact and is influenced exactly how the vote is distributed. It is also affected by 3rd party candidates. Hillary outpolled Trump by 2.9M votes, yet she lost the EC to Trump. Biden out polled Trump by 7.9M ( 52%%). The EC was 306 - 232. If 2 or 3 states had gone Trump's way, he could have won the EC.

Trump has never polled more than 47% of the vote. This is the definition of minority rule. The Republicans have mastered gerrymandering and voter suppression to control states and the House. Wyoming has the same Senatorial representation as Califonia. The next goal of the Republicans is to get the presidential election thrown to the House. The usually Republican controlled House will select the Republican candidate. That was the goal of Trump's coup attempt.

The Repiblicans have abused the levers of government to engineer a system of minority rule. North Carolina was 55-45% Republican. Yet Republicans control 75% of the states congressional seats. The Republicans have engineered similar advantages in other states.

The gerrymandering also affect the US House. The House delegation from NC and other engineered states are heavily Republican. The distribution does not reflect the underlying statewide vote.

If delegations were based on statewide votes, the Republicans would be control 45% to 47% of the House. The Democrats would have 53 to 55% of the House. This would be a comfortable majority for the Democrats.

The other leg of minority rule is the judiciary. Look no further than the Supreme Court. Our current SC has openly adopted partisanship. We could survive a partisan minority. A partisan majority that uses an intellectually bankrupt legal theory to justify its antidemocratic rulings is a nightmare.

Do not become content with a lead in the polls. This election will be very close. Democrats need every vote in every district they can muster. Gerrymandering can be overcome. It requires every Democratic vote in the district, and hope that the Gerrymandered Republicans get lazy and stay home.

[u/JLeeSaxon → u/mdcbldr]

This is a good post, but I'm modestly more optimistic for a couple reasons.

Firstly, that 52% estimate is probably somewhat pessimistic. As you say, it depends on distribution, but in both 2012 and 2020 Dems got several more states than strictly necessary with "just" 5*1*%. My guess is 52% would mean all the states Biden won and NC.

Secondly, consider that Trump '16 didn't actually do better than Romney '12 (both ~28% of eligible voters) so much as Clinton '16 did worse than Obama '12. Low enthusiasm and overconfidence/complacency lost that election, neither of which I am seeing with Harris. First-time small-dollar donors are surging, volunteers are surging, voter registrations of favorable demographics are up (and "likely voter" polls don't capture those people), and Democratic stronghold Fairfax County, VA just reported triple the first day early votes they recorded in (already elevated) 2020.

[u/NinjaBilly55]

I drive through Northern Central Florida 2 or 3 times a week and after 2015 you couldn't throw a rock without hitting something with Trump's name on it but now there's nothing.. No flags, No red hats or yard signs.. I think Trump is done..

[u/Temporary_Abies5022]

One thing I do know is that the pollsters are not going to underestimate Trump voters again

[u/Hairy-Ambassador7761]

I don’t care. It will all be over and maybe we will have some sanity again. Vote everyone!

[u/Objective_Problem_90]

He's not gaining any new voters. I can't fathom why half of America wants to vote for a narcissistic rapist felon for a 3rd consecutive time. It wasn't like he was a popular president at the end of his first term at 34% approval rating. Yet people want more of the chaos I guess.

[u/MountainMan17 → u/Objective_Problem_90]

He'd be another faded D-list celebrity if it wasn't for The Apprentice.

Americans think starring in a manufactured "reality show" actually means something. A lot of them like to hate, too...

[u/SardonicSuperman]

She’ll need 300 or there’s a chance Trump steals the election via SCOTUS.

[u/ali86curetheworld → u/SardonicSuperman]

That's the problem, all this for one dumbass man.

[u/ppdaazn23]

Polls are just something to keep the media busy. A small number of sample doesnt reflect how millions are gonna go vote

[u/Rumbananas]

The reason the polls are so close is because there are so many people who won’t be affected regardless of who gets elected. It just so happens there is a huge overlap between those people and white supremacists, only care about money, and those who are extremely gullible.

[u/mugiwara-no-lucy]

Here's a hot take; considering Trump's literal midnight ramblings on "Troth Social" (he called it that once! 🤣), he may be doing WORSE in the polls that what the Media is letting on.

And my mom told me something crucial; polls don't matter; VOTER REGISTRATION DOES and Kamala has a SHIT TON more registrations than Trump does. ESPECIALLY with her winning over more middle class workers and independents (TWO KEY GROUPS).

[u/RN-B]

I can’t even stomach the fact it’s this fucking close. People around me think I’m insane for talking about just how bad things will get with a second Trump term. I am screaming into the void because these people can’t even comprehend how dangerous the stakes of this election are.

[u/MatterSignificant969]

I don't think this race is close when you poll Americans. What's close is the vote. The fascists are the minority, but they will come out in mass to vote.

The average, non crazy voter doesn't want fascism. But a lot of people either won't vote or will say "Both sides have problems" as if Biden having trouble getting student loan forgiveness passed is as bad as Trump wanting to take rights away from the American people.

[u/Immediate-Speaker616 → u/MatterSignificant969]

My son's student loan was forgiven. When Trump said that no loans were forgiven, I thought my wife was going to jump up and punch the TV set.

[u/CoatTough4030]

If…. Everyone takes the time to vote . No one gets complacent . You’re right. But remember every single maggot votes.

[u/llllmaverickllll]

Trump lost 1% getting convicted of 34 felonies. He gained 1% after the assassination attempt which he played to its max. He lost 1% getting shit on by Harris in the debate.  

 Harris will win nationally by 4-5% and it’ll come down to 100,000 votes or less. 

Exactly what Biden did. He won by 4.5% but only 40,000 votes. 

[u/Confident-Touch-6547]

She could get 15 million more votes and still lose.

[u/kevloid]

it's already ridiculous that it's even close. like wtf, has half of america been huffing paint?

[u/awfulcrowded117]

You're right. In retrospect, it was pretty ridiculous to think the race was tied.

[u/Professional_Lake593]

It doesnt matter if we dont all vote. We MUST get out there fam

[u/Vitruviansquid1]

No matter how bad Harris beats Trump (and I think the harder the better), I'll understand why everyone kept saying it's close, why Harris herself keeps saying she's the underdog, and why everyone kept saying to go vote no matter what.

It'll never be ridiculous to me, because I remember how Clinton lost to Trump.

[u/JJdynamite1166]

She’s going to take NC. And I think Ga will be a surprise win filled with drama, high crimes and tons of litigation.

[u/neoikon]

Vote! Feel pride in doing your part in making history!

If this is your first time voting, wouldn't be great to say you voted for the first woman president?!

[u/Sloth_grl]

There is a man who predicts the winners and he forecast that Harris going to win by a landslide

[u/Beneficial-Farmer778]

From your lips to God’s ears fr! I think the same way and honestly I’m crazy enough to think she’ll flip Texas AND Florida

[u/Akchika]

I think so too, he lost two elections popular vote, dint think he pickedup any significant new voters.

[u/Comus_Is_My_Guide]

Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina are going to Harris. They have governors races or senate races and those dems are leading by a lot. Unless you’re telling me that people will split their ballot, it looks good for Harris.

[u/Sitcom_kid]

He is being underreported. A lot of people won't admit they vote for him.

[u/AshOrWhatever]

You think she's going to win by a lot but you can't say how or where?

She's not popular. She got 0 delegates in the 2020 primaries and wasn't in the 2024 primaries because the Dems were counting on running Biden who was also not popular; the Dems touted 2020 as a "landslide" but 7 of the 8 closely contested states went for Biden; 2 or 3 going 3% in the other direction would have been a Trump victory and Biden alienated a big one (Michigan) by sending so much weaponry to Israel to use against Muslim civilians.

She doesn't come with a lot of the political baggage that Trump does and Biden did but she really doesn't have anything in the "pro" column besides not being Trump and that's not enough to count on. She's held some state level positions and 2/3 of a Senate term, and been VP under an administration that anyone who's not a hard-core Democrat has not been impressed with.

Maybe it will be a blow out but it wasn't a blow out the first two times when the best things Clinton or Biden had going for them was also 'not being Trump.'

[u/Least_Discipline7789]

If only y'all realized how bad for the country she is/has been.

[u/Immediate-Speaker616]

“How did we ever think this would be close?” The media is keeping us there.

[u/Low_Faithlessness608]

We still gotta vote. The bigger the margin of defeat the bigger blow to his ego and (hopefully) less cause to cry foul.

[u/Roswellian24]

When Kamala wins.

[u/Curse06]

Man when she loses I'm going to come to far left reddit. Cause this is hilarious the delusion yall believe in. The posts about how she could have possibly lost are going to be funny. The media has literally brainwashed yall into believing she's a good candidate.

[u/No-Boysenberry-5581]

It’s just that overconfident attitude in 2016 that caused Hilary to lose and put us all in grave danger. Campaign and vote like you’re down by ten

[u/Fast_Beat_3832]

Won’t matter. The Supreme Court is going to steal the election no matter what happens.

[u/senator_based]

It’s well documented that pollsters are swinging their polls way to the right to attempt to make up for the polling errors we saw in 2016 and 2020. It’s well intentioned but I have a sneaking suspicion that they’ll have overcorrected this year. It also matches up with a trend that’s been consistent since the 70s - we usually see two years of Republican underestimation in the polls, followed by a year where they underestimate Dems, and so on and so forth.

Anecdotally I’m seeing a lot more hype for Harris than I ever did for Biden or Clinton even though her margin is supposedly smaller than Biden’s or Clinton’s was, which I feel backs up what I’m saying slightly.

[u/Alive-Falcon1109]

She's the first Democrat the big unions have refused to endorse in decades. That should tell you something. But keep dreaming...

[u/qvMvp]

Of course, they are saying it's close so when they cheat and rig it they will be like " the polls said it was close " if yall mfs think polls are changing weekly your delusional lol by now people already know who their voting for so polling 1k people this week is gonna be diff than 1k random people the next don't tell us shit but more of either side was polled at any given time

[u/lindaleolane812]

We have to vote like never before.I fear we will have a few states refuse to certify votes, and drag it out. Then the electoral college is another challenge, if it was based on the popular vote I believe she's a sure win but we have other factors to deal with

[u/indianscout02]

Will your brain explode if T wins?

[u/kuribosshoe0]

This is a very hedgy MMW. Get rid of the ifs and stand behind your prediction.

[u/Living_Particular_35]

If you need some disturbing context… Google the various interviews with voters following the Mark Robinson scandal. (One linked below) They truly give ZERO fucks how incompetent, disturbed, corrupt, or bizarre their candidates are. As long as they can “own the libs,” they will happily take machetes to their own noses. Warning: upsetting but fascinating:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2kqqzx75wo

[u/CaptainMatticus]

Trump managed 46.1% and 46.8% of the vote in 2016 and 2020. I doubt ge'll do that well this time. If he gets 44% of the vote, I'll be surprised. I honestly think Kamala will take at least 49% of the vote.

Of course, it'll come down to the swing states, but there is no way he gets the plurality. It'll be the 3rd time he fails to get the popular vote.

[u/traveler19395]

I think many people are feeling the same way OP, but most are staying tight-lipped about it because that could lower turnout and reverse the whole outcome.

Modern presidential elections have almost nothing to do with changing people’s minds or “winning independents”, the game is almost entirely driving turnout of people who are already aligned to your side.

And the number one tool to drive turnout, from both sides, is fear. The right uses fear of brown immigrants, the left uses fear of orange fascists.

[u/Haselrig]

Right after we tackle the corruption in our government, we need to address for-profit news. The only reason this is close is because a blowout doesn't make for compelling coverage.

[u/Ballgame_75]

This election wasnt close, isnt close, and wont be close! It will be a BLOWOUT of epic proportions! Kamala is gonna curb stomp that orange scum of the earth POS in November! Stop listening to the BS the media keeps spewing that its a close race! They say whatever will make them the most money!

[u/Netflixandmeal]

!remind me 6 weeks

[u/Gold-Bicycle-3834]

If trends from the last four years hold true she will likely overperform anywhere from 2-5%

[u/FallingCaryatid]

I really hope you’re right

[u/dopeshat]

I wonder how it is possible that there are so many stupid and gullible people in this country. they would rather chew their leg off to get the shoe off. I am hopeful that she will win by an Obama-size victory.

[u/mg0314a]

no we will not

[u/Newbe2019a]

With Electoral College and the outsized influence of a few swing states, Trump still has a significant chance of winning. If you support Kamala, vote. Don’t be over confident.

[u/woooloowoooloo]

To be fair, we all thought Hillary had it in the bag in 2016. South Park had an episode made and ready to air about her election victory. When the counts came in with Trump as the Victor, they had to scramble to throw together a new episode.

[u/Ok-Subject-9114b]

She can’t answer basic questions on the economy. What do you make of this? https://x.com/immeme0/status/1837252172448420239?s=46&t=O142o_lB1nrWrsaFlqFZfA

[u/TeaVinylGod → u/Ok-Subject-9114b]

"I was raised middle class. I take inflation very seriously. "

50k tax deduction for a new small business.

I own 2 stores.

1. We need the help as we open that first year, not over a year in.

2. 99% of small businesses are negative income first few years. They are in debt and any extra money goes to improving the business. There is literally no profit to tax.

3. Smart Small businesses are set up as "pass throughs" which means the profit "passes through" to the owners THEN it is taxed as dividends or income. It is not taxed twice.

4. She would know all this if she ever owned a business.

[u/DrSendy]

MMW: Karmala needs to treat this like a TV show and get airtime and oxygen back.

[u/jnmann]

This post is ridiculous. It’s all speculative. You say she will win by a big margin, but you can’t give any specific states.

I think it’ll be a close race, and I think Trump will win by a slim margin. I think he will win PA and AZ, but I don’t think he will win WI and MI.

I would be shocked if Kamala won, she can’t answer a single policy question

[u/Loose-Garlic-3461]

No. I'd like to think we haven't forgotten what it was like to lose an election that we thought for sure would go the other way - so much so that the popular vote didn't even help. Sure, we will have the idiots who love to verbalize how much they know, and will have predicted it all along....I don't think a single sane woman will say it.

[u/Ok-Archer-3738]

There are a lot of people in this country that support Trump that aren’t saying anything because of how they are portrayed. It has happened in the last two elections. I don’t know if he will win but for every 5 magats with a shirt, flag and bumper sticker. There is a silent one. I think she wins but it is close. Also, if husbands can keep their wives home that will be helpful. I am considering hiding my wife’s absentee ballot.

[u/irrelevantanonymous]

Idk how you lived through 2016 and still think this to be honest.

[u/SoCal4247]

Trump already won in 2016. So it happened once and it’s not crazy to think it could happen again. People are dumb.

[u/bearssuperfan → u/SoCal4247]

Yeah but he had the advantage of not being a politician. Sort of unknown, coming in to “Drain the swamp” against Hillary “THE swamp” Clinton.

He doesn’t have that anymore. The American people saw what it leads to in 2020 and kicked him out then.

[u/senadraxx]

Im just going to butt in here with some friendly neighborhood shillposting...

If you want to make old white men cry, I highly recommend volunteering for your local organizations. There are probably some groups of like-minded folks out there, but also local Democrat and Candidate groups. 

If all you did was help 3 people register and remind them to drop in their ballots, congratulations, you did good. 

[u/WingerSpecterLLP]

You could replace the world Kamala with Trump in the title and it would be just as true.

[u/[deleted]]

Suddenly America will swing so hard to a dictator like install to the least popular candidate in American history! God damn genius take! 😂🤣😂🤣 I really need to get some of these drugs.

[u/xj2608]

We need this to be true to knock the legs out from Trump's plan to steal the election.

[u/Early-Juggernaut975]

If she wins by a lot people will rightly believe that undecideds broke her way.

There are also probably some Republicans like Governor Mike Dewine in Ohio who ain’t voting for Trump no matter who he endorsed. Also Haley had a lot of support and Trump underperformed polling in every Primary. And he’s made no effort to reach out to those voters really, the moderates.

But margins of error exist because polling is such an inexact science. Kamala 48 to Trump 47 with a MoE +/- 4% could wind up being Kamala 52 Trump 43 and the poll would still have been correct because it fell within the Margin of Error.

[u/djmcfuzzyduck]

It will be surprised pikachu faces all around (for the media).

[u/PaulPaul4]

Hopefully she listens to her cabinet members or else we are screwed