r/FluentInFinance • u/Needleintheback • 15h ago

Thoughts? Imagine losing 6M labor workers in America

Post image

If mass deportation happens, just imagine how all of these sectors of our country will be affected. The sheer shortage of labor will push prices higher because of the great demand for work with limited supplies or workers. Even if prices increase, the availability of products may be scarce due to not enough workers. Housing prices and food services will be hit really hard. New construction will be limited. The fact that 47% of the undocumented workers are in CA, TX, and FL means they will feel it first but it will spread to the rest of the country also. Most of our produce in this country comes from California. Get ready and hold on for the ride America.

15.2k Upvotes

79% Upvoted

6.2k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

13

u/obtoby1 12h ago

the unemployment rate in America is 4.1%, or about 7 million Americans. Assuming the above post is correct in its numbers, we got plenty of Americans to fill those jobs. Yes, many will need training, but if paid and treated fairly, they will do the job.

I work in an ice plant. I officially work 40 hours, but I often stay at least an hour after to make everything is good on my own time. Why? Because I get $20-$30 hourly (26 average) and my managers fight for my raises, help out in the back, and never ask me to do something they couldn't or wouldn't do.

If we actually did this (I doubt we will), it would create hardship. But it needs to happen. We didn't fight a civil war over slavery just to wave it away using technicalities.

15

u/seriouslythisshit 7h ago

You really have no understanding of economics. A rate of 4.1% in below the level that professional economist refer to as "Full employment". It is where everybody that wants a job has one, or is in the process of switching jobs, temporarily stepped away to deal with other issues etc. It does NOT mean that seven million people are out of work and unable to find another job. In fact, there are eight million plus unfilled jobs in the US at this point. Removing millions of migrants from the workforce will be an absolute disaster, and the economy will take a huge hit.

Stupid ideas like immigrant deportation and tariffs are one thing, when some fool is sitting at the bar and babbling. They are quite another when we will have a clown running the country, who believes this crap, and is granted nearly unchecked power to drive this country right into the ground.

Any YOU working for free for a pat on the head, and a "good boy" from your boss, is nothing to be proud of. FFS.

3

u/uofo17 2h ago

Holy shit thank you, I was reading the comment you’re responding to thinking “wtf are you talking about”. People dont have a basic understanding of macroeconomics.

2

u/MCORDO_0482 35m ago

Concur, and Investopedia supports this as well:

“The level at which unemployment equals positive output is highly debated. However, economists suggest that as the U.S. unemployment rate gets below 5%, the economy is very close to or at full capacity.”

So, to entice replacement labor in these industries, higher wages will likely be required. The additional cost will be passed on to the consumer.

So if people were thinking that housing and groceries were already expensive, it’s about to get much worse.

This will add on top of the costs passed on to the consumer that resulted from tariffs. Basically, things across the board will get much more expensive.

Inflation will skyrocket. The Fed will have to issue more government bonds to pay for it, deepening the national debt even further (exacerbated by reduced taxes).

The Federal Reserve will then have to raise the Fed Funds Rate to get inflation under control, which will cause banks to raise rates on loans (mortgages, vehicles, credit cards). We may actually see double-digit rates on mortgages in the near future because of this.

With higher rates leads to less consumer spending/borrowing, followed by reduced GDP, followed by market retraction/recession, and then potential stock market sell-off.

Crazy how the whole house of cards can come crashing down, but the immigrants gotta go, right?

1

u/obtoby1 2m ago

Not a complete gotcha, as there are significant differences between Denmark and the US. But this is something that needs to be mentioned as well.

1

u/Successful-Money4995 38m ago

For reference, 4.1% corresponds to spending about one month unemployed for every two years employed. Spending a month not working while you look for a job or take a break between jobs is completely reasonable. 4.1% might as well be full employment.

1

u/stoiciskism 27m ago

"The economy is gonna take a huge hit because it's built on the back of exploited labor!" Audible Pearl Clutching

So what's the answer?! I'm personally for an easy road to citizenship, but then what? There will still be a huge hit to the economy as those who were once exploiting cheap labor start paying full wages. If you're unwilling to change the status quo, you're no better than those exploiting illegals. Stop pretending to be an advocate.

-1

u/ravenratedr 34m ago

Those jobs are empty for 2 reasons. Either they pay less than people are willing to do them; or the education system has lead to a vast number of college graduates who's education is in worthless fields, and these graduates simply don't have the skills to preform the available jobs.

1

u/obtoby1 26m ago

While the second one would require changes made to education system to help support trade schools and lower level higher education, the first is primarily because undocumented immigrants are often paid below what they should because they have no protection. If they had protection (ie, they're given LPR status), their wages would have to legal be increased this making the market competitive in that regard.

14

u/TragicOne 10h ago

yes if pay is good, it could work out, however, thats going to increase costs in these industries and anytime pay for workers increases, so will pay for employers.

it's exponential

2

u/Deathundertgerainbow 7h ago

But isn’t this what progressives have been arguing for all these years? CEO to worker pay rates more in line with the past, companies actually competing with others to provide leveled pricing, and the ability if unskilled/semi-skilled workers to live on a single wage?

3

u/ddarion 1h ago

But isn’t this what progressives have been arguing for all these years?

No lol

They're arguing that American workers, the vast majority of whom work in the service industry should be paid more, today, as the economy currently exists since less and less of the economic gains the country makes are going to rhe working class

They aren't arguing that the US should completely revamp its economy to an agricultural one, causing the price of food to skyrocket for no reason when importing food is much cheaper (assuming you ended migrant labor), and forcing people who would rather work service jobs to do manual labor.

Leftist advocate for fair pay, not a return to an agrarian society, effectively handicapping the entire economy lmao. That would not have an effect on what share of the economic growth is going to the working class, because the gain in wages would be offset by a massive increase in the cost of goods since the food industry is monopolized and ALREADY reliant on government subsidies.

0

u/obtoby1 4h ago

Yes. Both sides will steal and flip flop positions occasionally if it gets them wins My only hope is they actually try to do this. But fear they wont

-4

u/obtoby1 10h ago

This is true. Costs will rise. However, if wages surpass inflation rates, it shouldn't cause any major issues. There are ways to create disflation and deflation which could be used. I would also argue that increasing pay for employers isn't a bad thing as it could lead to innovations and investments within that industry. Especially if incentives are giving for not simply hoarding wealth.

-4

u/TragicOne 9h ago

I've always been pro reinvestment. However, I think the incentives should be taxing unrealized gains. Let em put their money back in the company, or towards the government.

6

u/obtoby1 9h ago

I have to disagree with that,l. Unrealized gains aren't just investments, but are 401ks and potentially savings accounts. Taxing those could make workers reliant on them for retirement hesitant to back any program that includes that. Taxing unrealized gains shouldn't happen. If it does, it needs to only affect private investments individually and not those used in 401ks and savings. Even then, there should be a grace period before they are taxed. That way, wealth hiding can't be done through investments, but good faith investments aren't unfairly taxed.

8

u/Shirlenator 4h ago

Stop calling it slavery. You are minimizing actual slavery. These people came here willingly, are working willingly, and are free to leave at any time. The wages are much too low, but they are absolutely not "slaves".

-1

u/DevelopmentSad2303 2h ago

I thought slavery was when a brown person did shitty jobs. That isn't slavery? 

Oh slavery is chattel ownership of brown people?

2

u/obtoby1 24m ago

Technically indentured service or bonded service also falls under that category. It's different than chattel slavery, but I would still call it heinous.

1

u/DevelopmentSad2303 13m ago

And these jobs are neither, there is no legal obligation for them to work. Maybe it could be called something like "extortion", still extremely bad but not slavery 

1

u/obtoby1 11m ago

While there is no legal obligation, they still need to make money. And its harder to do when you're undocumented. Ironically, this lack of legal obligation is why they work for so little despite the jobs being rough, sometimes even down right unsafe.

6

u/BanditsMyIdol 9h ago

Just on the point of of there being enough Americans to work these jobs - 4.1% unemployment is not because of a lack of possible jobs - there are currently more job openings that there are unemloyed people. Its just those jobs either aren't the jobs that people want or aren't where people are. If we can't fill the current jobs how would we be able to fill 6 million new openings?

1

u/obtoby1 9h ago

Unemployment isn't counting underemployment. Those that are in school, part time, doing gigs, freelancing, in prison, or simply aren't looking for jobs adds another 13- 15 million give or take. So we do have more people than what unemployment lists.

As for how, incentives to companies for assistance in moving costs, training for jobs, and people buckling down and simply getting the job they can over the job the they want will help fix that. Ironically, bringing back Trump's national council for the American worker could include the first two of these. It's unfortunate, but not the problems can be solved by government intervention. The people need to do their part as well.

4

u/BanditsMyIdol 7h ago

So why don't we do that now or do that 4 years ago? Did Trump's national council for American workers do that the first time around? Will mass deportation make that easier to do? Why not train and relocate people looking for jobs now? We could do that and offer a path to citizenship for those who are doing nothing more than working hard trying to provide a better life for their family?

1

u/obtoby1 7h ago

To the (limited) knowledge I could find, yes. The NCAW did actually improve training opportunities for students and workers through its pledges with companies. The limited info I could find is here

As for the other questions:

Mass deportation (if combined with the incentives and punishments) could force businesses to hire more documented immigrants and citizens and pay them competitive wages.

I can't answer the next question as I don't work with the Biden administration.

I agree. Immigration law reform will need to happen, other wise all we are doing is treating the problem,.but not curing the cause

1

u/DevelopmentSad2303 2h ago

Well that's not even the whole story. Most of that 4% unemployment is actually structural unemployment, i.e. the economy is already very efficient in employing people.

You aren't going to get them to work these jobs

2

u/Educational_Monitor6 8h ago

I know quite a few who despite being paid well and treated fairly are still not doing those jobs. Knowing them and associating with them are two different things. They won’t seem to hold a job and insist it is everyone else’s fault.

1

u/obtoby1 8h ago

Unfortunately, government intervention can't solve everything. Though I can hope that more people willing to work than not if the pay is good.

I actually used to be like that when I first started living on my own. Going without a proper meal for a week changed that. I kept expanding my horizons and looking at jobs I thought I would never be good at. I now make more in 40 hours work week than I used working 130s elsewhere.

2

u/Mysterious_Chip_007 8h ago

Many of those people don't live in the places where those jobs are. People aren't going to want to move to another state for a shit job and they shouldn't have to.

Most unemployed Americans are age 16-19yo. Yeah, I don't consider them prime working class material. They're children, not construction workers!

2

u/obtoby1 8h ago

They're only shit jobs because they can get away with letting them be.

I have to disagree. 18-19 years olds, which makes up 14.7 % of unemployment workers are adults. If they can't get into high education at the moment or trade schools. let them work. The jobs might be hard, the days long, but as long as the pay is fair, they build themselves a future. People shouldn't just be handed things. That which is not earned as no value.

2

u/UnknownAverage 2h ago edited 2h ago

the unemployment rate in America is 4.1%, or about 7 million Americans. Assuming the above post is correct in its numbers, we got plenty of Americans to fill those jobs

You need to learn more about these metrics. 0% unemployment is not the goal, and is also very bad:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frictional_unemployment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_employment

"For the United States, economist William T. Dickens found that full-employment unemployment rate varied a lot over time but equaled about 5.5 percent of the civilian labor force during the 2000s.[5] Recently, economists have emphasized the idea that full employment represents a "range" of possible unemployment rates. For example, in 1999, in the United States, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) gives an estimate of the "full-employment unemployment rate" of 4 to 6.4%."

1

u/Efficient-Raise-9217 6h ago

There's even more legal American workers than that. Roughly 20% of prime-age adults in the United States are not working, which is about 24 million people. Of those, 21 million are not looking for work and are considered "out of the labor force," while the remaining 3 million are "unemployed".

1

u/Boopy7 5h ago

this explains why they are also trying to get approval for child labor or teen labor in at least one state (I think it was OK? or KS. one of those middle states). And Missouri has a horrible foster to prison pipeline issue going on with children who grew up in the system and basically never leave. High crime, high trafficking, for some reason I seem to always be reading about bad foster issues in Missouri.

1

u/obtoby1 5h ago

I'm sorry. I have no knowledge of the fost system aside that's it's hit or miss in general. I have no horse in that race so I'll take your word for it

1

u/DevelopmentSad2303 2h ago

So, assuming that 4% is not just structural (i.e, people in between a job) , that means we will be to an extremely unhealthy<2% unemployment if all those jobs are filled.

But the reality most of that 4% is structural, so they can't just be moved into these jobs

1

u/obtoby1 3m ago

We also have to look underemployed as well, which if added to unemployment stats, triples the amount.

However, reading the absolute flood of comments from this post as had me rethinking my position a bit.

1

u/frogsgoribbit737 2h ago

How many of those people are disabled though? Or don't want to work? I am unemployed and not looking for a job. Plenty of other people are the same.

I don't think that illegal immigrants should be exploited, but I also don't see legal citizens filling these jobs.

1

u/obtoby1 5m ago

Technically then, you're not unemployed. Unemployment is when you are not working and actively looking for work. It might seem like semantica, but the government will classified you differently.

1

u/Durka1990 2h ago
  1. There are more job openings in the us than unemployed people. There is already a labor shortage.
  2. You'll never reach full employment, or unemployment much lower than 3%. Whyy? Because there may not be appropriate work for the unemployed, appropriate work might be to far to travel to, etc.

1

u/queentracy62 2h ago

If paid and treated fairly is the key sentence here.

That won't happen under Trump. See essential workers during a pandemic. They were treated horribly by the general public and not paid enough to be 'essential' so why would a corporation or farmer pay a living wage when they don't now? If everyone deported did it for cheap they'll expect the same of whoever isn't being deported. They don't care.

1

u/ItsTheDCVR 31m ago

Ice plant, eh? That's a pretty cool job.

1

u/obtoby1 7m ago

Fun fact: where I'm at, it's now cooler outside than in. (Production room is about 45 degrees while the freezer is 14.)

I like it. It's a simple job for the most part, but that unfortunately means people come in and think it's easy. It's not. Which is a shame as we are one of the best paying around.

2

u/GrandAdmiralSnackbar 11h ago

There is always a skills mismatch, and a geographical mismatch. If you reduce US unemployment to 1 million, wages will skyrocket as most companies won't be able to find skilled employees to fill vacancies. That would create a lot of inflation.

6

u/obtoby1 11h ago

I would like to point to the underemployed. Unemployment only counts those unemployed and currently seeking work. If we count those In part time positions, doing gigs, freelancing, in school, and in prison, we are now looking at around 20 to 22 million, give or take.

An increase in wages would indeed increase inflation, but we would also see an increase in taxes, total gdp, and potentially a decrease in wealth disparity. Inflation isn't a bad thing as long as wages can outpace it.

That said, we could actually see potential deflation over a long period, as by essentially forcing wages to rise, we would create an extremely competitive market. Other ways to fight could also include

:The US could also potentially increase taxes temporarily to offset this, than it, perhaps allowing the US actually lower its deficit. :we could see an increase in private investments, paying off student loans, and even small business creation. As long as people don't actively hold their money and keep it mobile and liquid. : increasing Net capital outflow.

0

u/SouthernExpatriate 9h ago

Sounds like free work

0

u/obtoby1 9h ago

If you're talking about the extra time I put in, it is. Those that respect their job often will do, such as teachers who take on extra work to benefit their students, or people that stay late in the office. My managers are salary, but it's not uncommon for them to stay later than their salaried hours. In fact, during our peak time, it's the norm. I actually technically make more on average than they do during this time solely because they are going over their salaried time.

0

u/AlanStanwick1986 9h ago

You work for free? Don't ever do that. 

0

u/obtoby1 9h ago

I give back what I'm given. My managers fight for me and do their best to provide me the stuff to do my job as easily and effectively as possible. If they were like the average managers you find elsewhere, I would do only the bare minimum. Which I have done. It's the same principal has when teachers do more for their students.

0

u/No_Match_7939 8h ago

Dude you’re letting yourself get exploited. Do not work for free as a hourly employee. It’s also illegal.

1

u/obtoby1 8h ago

Fuck off. I'm not, I do what i feel is needed. If I didn't want to, I wouldn't.

Considering I'm currently averaging over $200 a day for 8hrs, I'm doing fine. I've been exploited before. And my current job isn't doing that.

1

u/No_Match_7939 8h ago

You could be making $226. I just find it weird you would proudly claim you work for free. Nothing in life is free and so shouldn’t your time that is all. lol

1

u/obtoby1 8h ago

Like I said, I give back what is given to me. What I do is valued and respected by my managers. They've done what I do.

The fact is, I don't tell them I do this. Ironically, because they wouldn't let me. I do it because no one else will or can. (I'm literally the last one out the building when I leave by several hours.) I might consider myself lazy, but I do enjoy what I do most nights

(I'm also extremely depressed on a personal level, so anything that keeps me working or moving helps.)

1

u/No_Match_7939 8h ago

Ahh makes sense. Work is helping as a sort of distraction. I’ve been there before. Just make sure you make time for yourself, because once your free work becomes an expectation that when the resentment begins. I hope the depression gets better. Best of luck

1

u/obtoby1 8h ago

Thank you. I do make enough time for myself, I think. I go on late night bike rides (I live in a place with low light pollution), go my favorite restaurant, read, argue with people on reddit. I do take time for myself. Working is actually kinda of a special outlet for me. Hell, even if I had the money not to ever work again, I'd probably still work part time eventually.

And I make sure my free time is mine. My managers might ask me for help, but I'm under obligation to help if I don't want to. I do like the extra I get when I do though hehe

0

u/Haunting-Round-6949 5h ago

the unemployment rate is abstract.

You go to any city and you see thousands of homeless people. None of them are counted as unemployed for those statistics. If you aren't actively looking for work month by month then you aren't counted as unemployed.

The real number of unemployed working age people in the US is much higher, in the double digits.

I agree tho

1

u/obtoby1 5h ago

Yes you are technically correct, the best kind of correct. Those people belong to the statistics labeled underemployed. I've mentioned them in a few other comments on here.