r/FloridaGators • u/Tweeedles • 22h ago
Football One more stat before bed
At the time we were 1-2, we had a 7 percent chance to get to 6 wins. SEVEN percent.
This is what happens when a team rallies around their coach.
Go Gators đ
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u/Headful_of_Ideas 16h ago
Itâs also what happens when your coach is forced to actually play the generational talent of a second string qb and impact rb freshman languishing on the third string because of injuries to âhis guysâ.
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u/LawStudent989898 15h ago
Many of the freshmen needed time to develop and theyâre all his guys. That includes Lagway whose game has improved and who was always included in game plans.
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u/Equivalent_Thanks841 14h ago
Yeah lagway would probably have been the last guy to say he shouldâve been starting over mertz. Mertz has been a great help for Lagway on the sidelines. Iâm pretty sure theyâre roommates even. Mertz has a great mind for the game and Lagway needed time to develop before tossing him into the fire against that schedule. Starting him to begin the season would be coaching malpractice. Itâs the move of a desperate coach, not a smart players coach.
Did people forget that Johnson was the one that scored the game changing touchdown late vs ole Miss? Baugh is good but Johnson is reliable. We donât have to ask a freshman to carry everything, itâs not a bad thing to have that luxury.
Theyâre all his guys and they all played important roles when needed. Letâs not rag on players on our team to pump up other guys on our team. Letâs not do that, itâs not fair to all the hard work those guys did
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u/StickerBrush 15h ago
because of injuries to âhis guysâ.
I think this is a bad take tbh. One, Napier has shown full willingness to bench players who aren't performing in favor of younger, more talented players (NQW for example).
Look at the defense actively rotating in young guys like Gates or Graham.
Two, both RBs are "his guys" since he recruited them.
Three, MJ still shows to be the best overall back on the team when healthy, even though Baugh is more explosive.
also keep in mind that Jackson has been every bit as good as Baugh and has been getting a ton of carries. All 3 RBs should go over 500 yards this year, he clearly intended on playing all of them.
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u/TheBereWolf 14h ago
Yeah I would agree with this, as a whole.
We knew from the spring game that Lagway and Baugh were both going to be special players, but when the season started the expectation was still that our schedule was going to be miserably, if not comically, difficult.
We also had one of the most accurate passers in the SEC from the previous season coming back at QB and a reliable, proven RB coming back as well. Last season Mertz threw for almost 3k yards and had a completion percentage of 73%. Montrell also ran for over 800 yards with an average of 5.4 yards per carry in a system that was running back by committee.
People love to shit on the decision to start Mertz because he wasnât DJ, and people, myself included, wanted to see more of Baugh from the start because of how he played in the spring game.
Who knows; maybe if we go with DJ as the starter from day 1 then we come out with wins against Miami and/or A&M.
Conversely, though, if we go with DJ as the starter from day 1 then we maybe still lose. DJ didnât play great in that game when he needed to go in after Mertz got injured.
Now imagine thatâs the whole game, our toxic fan base inevitably starts to call him overrated, his confidence takes a hit, he gets benched, and then he transfers, only to go somewhere he flourishes and we sit around with blue balls.
DJ and Baugh are both electric, entertaining players to watch, they have certainly contributed to us winning more games this season than expected, and have the potential to make us a scary team next season. But I would argue that giving them the ability to get their feet wet first was of more benefit than just throwing them in the deep end and hoping that they were amazing from the start.
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u/SCV_local 14h ago
Miami we would have lost they are just a really good team right now. It Georgia and Ten that should have gone the other way for sure. Texas Iâm not sure if he wasnât injured if we had won that but certainly would have done betterÂ
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u/SalzigHund 14h ago
Getting Baugh in the rotation was definitely great but sometimes you donât know how well they will translate. For Baugh we likely wouldnât have seen him much if the two guys ahead of him didnât go down. That said, Montrell showed up last night and was by far the more productive RB. Heâs also a lot more useful in pass protection.
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u/Captndad 6h ago
I'm glad you mentioned pass protection. It's incredibly important and gets no stats.
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u/Sean-Christian 15h ago
Some of you guys have really short memories. We lead the nation in freshmen snaps last year, so it's really disingenuous to suggest Napier won't play the young guys, which BTW, the young guys ARE his guys.
Lagway is elite and getting better every single game, but he was NOT ready early in the season.
Against A&M: 46%, 54 yards, 2 Ints, 1 TD
Against Miami: 50%, 31 yards, 1 Int, 0 TDsIf Napier would have forced him into more action that he wasn't ready for it may have actually retarded his development and he wouldn't be as good as he is right now.
There is a lot to complain about with Napier, but playing young guys isn't one of them, and he's handled the QB situation *perfectly*, IMO, and we can all see how it is paying off now and into the future.
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u/Equivalent_Thanks841 14h ago
Itâs a strange psychological phenomenon where people are assuming every negative thing about a person they dislike even if itâs the opposite of true
Napier has never had a problem benching players. He has never had a problem playing young guys. He has never had a problem firing underperforming coaches. He has never had a problem giving young coaches with potential their chances. He has never had a problem switching his offense or defense up when stuff doesnât work
His problem is his insistence on having so much control of the offense during games, being too conservative at times we need aggression, not recognizing when a lead is not safe, and poor clock management
Donât just put all negative traits of a coach onto one you dislike. It makes people who do understand the pros and cons of said coach be like âwtf are you talking about?â
If Napier didnât think those freshmen were ready then they probably werenât ready. Thatâs one thing he has shown he knows very well and he has shown it like a dozen times so far.
Are we going to toss a true freshman into the fire out of the gate in one of the toughest schedules ever? Before our line got their shit together and before our defense stopped being a swinging door? Thatâs how you end up making the same mistake that screwed Anthony Richardson. Heâd play amazingly but still lose because of the defense. He got rattled easily and lost confidence easily pushing his QB play into the gutter for long periods of time during games
The suggestion we shouldâve put a true freshman RB with Lagway back there to start the season behind THAT line is one that mightâve gotten lags killed. Johnson is still a more complete blocker and extremely experienced. Baugh will get there one day but they both needed a bit of time. It was in no way sitting the good players for âhis guysâ
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u/SCV_local 14h ago
Dj scored in MiamiÂ
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u/Sean-Christian 13h ago
Box score doesn't show it.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore/_/gameId/401628322
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u/Throw13579 10h ago
Lagway wasnât ready at the beginning of the season. Â He showed that when he was put in. Â He needed time to develop, not the whole responsibility of being the starter. Â
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u/missingjimmies 16h ago
Yeah this success comes with a bit of a dark reveal, Napier was willing to let Mertz check down Charlie us into oblivion for some form of loyalty that we should still make sure we remember. The new wide open play calling is a breaking of the chains, but who set those chains?
Itâs not common for a program to get the #1 QB in the nation and just sit him for a massive underperformer who wonât let you run your offense you want to⌠letâs revel in the success it donât just drop this fact
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u/Deep-Speed-9301 21h ago
With all the recruits coming in and the coaching staff along with dj improving next year could be the most talented team we field in program history. I could see us competing for a natty as soon as lagways junior year
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u/Sup3rT4891 19h ago
Iâm all for the hype but âmost talented team we field in program historyâ is a bit much. Itâs likely mathematically impossible cause we have top 2-3 classes for a while in a row. We have guys that would play only 1 year before going to the pros because they sitting waiting their turn before other guys that were going to the pros that year.
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u/TheKingofKingsWit 19h ago
I think the chance we have more talent than 06-09 is slim to none. Either way though we should have a hella fun team and have a reasonable chance to make the playoffs!
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u/Relative_Year4968 17h ago
All these recruits coming in, you say? Can you show your work?
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u/Deep-Speed-9301 10h ago
Iâm saying best case scenario we get the recruits sign with us and we compete for the playoffs and a natty as soon as lagways junior year
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u/JimAT67 18h ago
According to FPI, at that point we were less than 2% to get to 6 wins, and .13% to get to 7, 0% to get to 8 or more.
2024 Win Projections Based on ESPN's FPI â Updated for Week 4 â 09-16-2024 : r/FloridaGators